The Cubs have a major red flag if this MLB contract prediction becomes true

Dansby Swanson has become an enigma when looking at the Chicago Cubs' roster construction.

Not only is Swanson the highest-paid player on the team, he is also the holder of the largest contract in the history of the Cubs' organization. That fact is more tied to the spending trend across Major League Baseball as opposed to the player that Swanson is. That has become part of the problem when looking at Swanson's impact with the Cubs.

Swanson's contract in relation to the Cubs' payroll would suggest that he is getting paid to be the team's superstar. But, when looking at the other contracts signed when Swanson inked his deal with the Cubs, his contract proves that he is good but not the superstar-caliber shortstop such as Trea Turner and Carlos Correa. Correa and Turner were the super-star-caliber free-agent shortstops who were also available at the time of Swanson's free agency.

But given that Swanson is the team's highest-paid player, there is a hope that he brings more consistency than his offensive profile has shown with the Cubs over the last two seasons.

That lack of consistency, however, is why Swanson's 2024 season fell short of expectations but casts doubt over how his seven-year contract worth $177MM will age for the Cubs. Bleacher Report listed Swanson's contract as a potential nightmare for the Cubs by 2026.

Dansby Swanson's contract highlights the concern with Cubs' offseason approach.

Swanson's contract from the Cubs was the result of Jed Hoyer still feeling the burn of the lack of initial returns the team had with the Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish contracts. As the Cubs' previous contention window collapsed, the Cubs' front office often pointed to the money owed to Darvish and Heyward as a reason why they couldn't spend any further. As misguided as that thought process may be, it's one that the Cubs live by.

But, that fear from the Cubs' front office has created a new type of risk. On spending on a player like Swanson, the Cubs are leaning into projection as opposed to expectation. The projection for Swanson was that he would remain one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball with a bat that could have consistent power at Wrigley Field. Two seasons into his contract and Swanson is already showing a power regression with a slight dip in defensive metrics.

Regression for a player like Swanson is more impactful than regression for a superstar-caliber play. A player like Swanson regresses from being a good player to a slightly above-average player despite still being paid like a 4-WAR player. Meanwhile, regression for a superstar-caliber player is often from great to good. That difference is why Swanson's contract may soon be a problem for the Cubs.