An objective look at Dansby Swanson's 'disappointing' 2024 season

The word "disappointing" has often been used to describe Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson's 2024 season. In the second year of a seven-year deal, Swanson, 30, managed only 16 home runs and slugged .390 in 149 games. This is the first time he hit fewer than 17 homers and slugged under .400 since 2018 (non-COVID seasons) . He had a three-year streak of hitting at least 22 homers snapped.

But, really, how bad was his 2024? Despite the dip in offensive production, he still led the team in fWAR at 4.3 and was eighth amongst shortstops. According to FanGraphs, he was best among all shortstops in baseball in defensive value (Def) at 18.9 while also leading all SS in FRV (Statcast fielding run value) at 14 and OAA (Statcast Outs Above Average) at 18. Swanson's DRS (defensive runs saved) of 7 was fifth among shortstops. Overall his 14 OAA ranked fourth among all MLB position players and tied for third in Statcast runs prevented (14). Say what you will about the weight of defensive value in fWAR, but Swanson is still one of the very best defenders in baseball.

So much of the value is in the glove, but let's revisit the offense.

Overall Swanson hit .242/.312/.390 with a .701 OPS, 16 home runs and 99 wRC+. In a vacuum, those are pretty average offensive numbers, and fans rightfully want more from the highest-paid player on the team. However, there are a few things to note.

Swanson got off to a bad start and heated up later. He hit .212/.282/.350 in the first half with a .632 OPS and nine home runs in 87 games. What is important to remember is that Swason was dealing with some leg issues, including a knee sprain in May that he had been dealing with. Don't forget at the end of 2023 he was dealing with some ailments but kept playing. In the second half, Swanson hit .281/.352/.443 with a .795 OPS and seven home runs in 62 games. He tallied nearly the same number of XBH in the second half (22) as he did in the first half (23) in 25 fewer games. A healthier Swanson looked much better in those final few months.

While the overall numbers are down and he should be expected to produce more, they are not that far off from his career marks. Compare 2024 to his career:

• 2024: .242/.312/.390 - .701 OPS - 99 wRC+
• Career: .252/.321/.413 - .734 OPS - 96 wRC+

There is some context to give. From 2020-2023 Swanson averaged a 109 wRC+ a season while he had averaged just an 85 wRC+ his first four seasons (2016-2019) in the Majors, so his career wRC+ production could look a tad skewed. As mentioned earlier he became a 20+ home run hitter in 2021 and kept that going for several years. Still, you balance everything out and realistic expectations for Swanson now are around his career slash-line with a .740 range OPS, 20-some homers, and a 100-110 range wRC+. He did not quite hit those numbers in 2024 but wasn't lightyears away from it either.

The reality is Swanson is neither a Corey Seager or Trea Turner-type offensive shortstop. He is also not one to be the Alpha in a contending lineup. Swanson's baseball card will tell you he provides solid offense with a high baseball IQ and exceptional defense. The IQ and exceptional defense were there again in 2024 with a slightly down offensive output. Is it still disappointing? Sure, as mentioned before he is the highest-paid guy on the team. But that said, it wasn't the disaster some are making it out to be.