Surprising Cody Bellinger contract prediction would shift Cubs' offseason plans

For much of the past month, the expectation was that Cody Bellinger would decline his player option for the 2025 season in order to test free agency.

The belief is that Bellinger, despite his power regression in 2024, would be an attractive fallback option for teams unable to sign Juan Soto this offseason.

Under the three-year deal that Bellinger signed with the Cubs last offseason, he would earn $27.5MM in 2025 if he decided to return.

While the trend has been that Bellinger will test free agency this offseason, the latest Northside Territory podcast from Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma paints a different picture. During the episode, both Mooney and Sharma seemed to push back on their earlier belief that Bellinger was certain to opt out of his current deal with the Cubs. While neither leaned in a particular direction regarding Bellinger's decision, it seems as if they have received messaging that suggests the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year may be returning to the Cubs in 2025.

Cody Bellinger returning to the Cubs in 2025 would dramatically change the offseason plan.

From a roster standpoint, Bellinger's return would limit the flexibility of what the Cubs can do this offseason. For a team that is in need of power, catcher would seemingly be the only avenue where the Cubs could improve their starting lineup if Bellinger is back with the team.

Bellinger's return would also limit what the Cubs can do financially this offseason. If Bellinger elects to become a free agent this offseason, the Cubs would have approximately $100MM in spending available this offseason to reach where their payroll was in 2024. If Bellinger returns, that number is nearly cut in half.

Bellinger's return would also nearly guarantee that the Cubs will trade one of their outfield prospects. Whether it's Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcantara, the idea of both of them being part of the organization when the Major League Roster includes Bellinger, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong would be farfetched.