Latest MLB data confirms a painfully obvious truth for frustrated Cubs fans

With the Chicago Cubs one of the best teams in the baseball, there are expectations that the team’s front office and (more directly) ownership are willing to spend whatever it takes to keep this train rolling.

Whether it be extending Kyle Tucker or finding a way to extend one of the best young stars in the game in Pete Crow-Armstrong, there is plenty of talent under the Cubs' control right now that fans would love to see locked down for many years to come. However, The Athletic threw some cold water on expectations that Tom Ricketts is actually willing to spend “whatever it takes” to make sure the team stays in contention for the long run.

This chart should worry Cubs fans hoping for PCA or Tucker extensions

The site put together a graph that compares the average year-end Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll and the aggregate winning percentage for every team in Major League Baseball from 2022 to 2025. And as it turns out, the graph doesn’t paint a pretty picture as far as how the Chicago Cubs are using the resources they have.

Despite (according to CNBC) being in the Top 5 in both total valuation and annual revenue, The Athletic’s graph shows that the Cubs are in “the middle” of the convergence of average payroll and winning percentage.

Of the other teams in that group (Cincinnati, Detroit, Arizona, Minnesota, St. Louis, San Francisco, Texas, Toronto and Boston), only the Red Sox and Giants are really close to Chicago in terms of resources.

Obviously, the Cubs have too much money and revenue to be in the Overchievers category occupied by Baltimore, Milwaukee, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, who all put together very nice winning percentages over the last few years despite payrolls between $100 and $200 million.

But the Cubs should absolutely be in the Powerhouses. This is where the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies reside, among others. 

That Chicago isn’t on the higher end of either the winning percentage line or the CBT line isn’t particular good news for those hoping that the team might sign either or both of PCA or Tucker. It’s even more frustrating because the team has operated exactly as this graph seems to point out.

The last non-COVID season the Cubs made the playoffs was 2018. It’s been a while since they’ve been willing to significantly go over the CBT threshold. Ricketts demonstrated that again when he wasn’t willing to offer up a significant outlay for free agent third baseman Alex Bregman this offseason, despite a rather obvious hole at the position that might have been plugged by Matt Shaw just this week.

At the very least, this graph might undercut the hopes and dreams of Chicago Cubs fans everywhere that the front office will all of the sudden step outside its personality and spend “whatever it takes” to lock down two of the best sluggers in the game today.