Cubbies Crib
FanSided

Surprising analysis from The Athletic names the Cubs as a World Series favorite

It feels early to be eliminating teams from World Series contention in just June, but history will argue the Cubs have already solidified their chances for glory.
ByNick Neumayer|
Matt Dirksen/GettyImages

As sports fans, we often search for anything we can to prove exactly why our favorite team will win a championship. Whether sane or not, we often go to great depths to prove why this year is most definitely our year.

While some go to great lengths with frail arguments, others present their cases with statistics and facts, and that’s exactly what Neil Paine of The Athletic did.

In his recent piece (subscription required), Paine did a thorough examination of every World Series-winning team since 1998, looking at where they all stood in June, and what they all had in common. In doing so, he was able to find a near-perfect system to determine what teams are capable of winning the World Series in 2025.

According to Paine, the Chicago Cubs are one of the five teams most likely to win the World Series

To begin, Paine looked at the following three statistics: win percentage, run differential, and wins above replacement. Each World Series champion (with the exception of the 2003 Florida Marlins) ranked in the top 13 in at least two of these categories.

Things are already starting to look promising here. The Chicago Cubs are currently third in Major League Baseball with 8.9 bWAR as a team, second in win percentage (.616) and currently lead all of MLB with a +107 run differential.

The next two stats shouldn’t come as a surprise. Teams with a chance of winning should be able to get on base and hit the ball hard, ranking in the top 17 in on-base percentage and top 11 in slugging. The Cubs currently rank fourth with a slugging percentage of .436 as a team, while sitting in eighth with an OBP of .324.

Now we get to the pitching. Paine’s next set of eliminations factor in the top 11 in opponent batting average or the top 16 in WHIP.  The Cubs are currently 17th with a .242 opponent batting average, but redeem themselves with a WHIP of 1.22 that ranks tenth in MLB. 

Interestingly enough, this factor eliminates the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank 16th and 21st in those two respective categories.

The next factor calls for the top 13 teams in quality starts or fewest meltdowns. The Cubs currently rank tenth with 30 quality starts, with Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd each one off the MLB lead with 10 quality starts each.

The last set of factors is the most complicated, but all but guarantees the Cubs a chance to play deep into October. Paine’s model has World Series winners in the top 11 in lowest BABIP allowed, top 20 in batting clutch, top 20 in fewest HR/9 allowed, top 25 lowest in strikeout rate and top 25 in speed score. All categories the Cubs find themselves in.

According to Paine, the five teams that can win the World Series in 2025 are the Cubs, the Houston Astros, the San Diego Padres, the Detroit Tigers, and the New York Yankees, with Paine naming the Cubs, Tigers and Yankees as his favorites.

While it feels weird to be accurately predicting who can and cannot win the World Series in June, history will argue that any team capable of winning has already established themselves as contenders. As the season begins to heat up as summer starts to set in, Cubs fans can take a breath, at least partially, knowing they have history on their side.