Can the Chicago Cubs win the World Series? Baseball Reference seems to think so

After a shaky opening series against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Tokyo, it’s safe to say the Chicago Cubs have found their stride. The Cubs currently lead Major League Baseball in hits (218), runs (145), RBI (142) and run differential (+41), while ranking second in both walks (97) and slugging percentage (.785). 

These numbers look great by themselves, but look even better when you consider they have come primarily against the Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers, all teams currently with records over .500.

Their recent stretch has earned them a record of 14-10, good for a one-game lead in the National League Central Division over the rival Milwaukee Brewers. While the season is still young, the latest postseason odds from Baseball Reference will certainly leave Cubs fans with a smile on their faces.

The site gives the Cubs 93.6 percent odds to make the postseason, something fans will certainly take in the midst of a four-year playoff drought. However, that was not all Baseball Reference had to say about the team’s season.

Baseball Reference gives the Cubs 17.6% odds to win the World Series 

The Cubs’ odds currently are the highest in all of MLB. For reference, the Dodgers (the league’s consensus favorites heading into the season) only have their odds set at 3.1 percent.

“MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs,” Baseball Reference said with their rankings. “The team’s estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor.”

This is not the first time a site has projected high on the Cubs. Baseball Prospectus originally projected 90.6 wins for the Cubs in their preseason PECOTA rankings, with the number rising to 93.3 as of April 21. 

While these numbers are certainly fun to look at, it’s important to remember they are only projections. However, considering the Cubs have not won a playoff series since 2017, it’s hard not to fantasize about how special the 2025 season could be if the stars continue to align.