As per offseason tradition, Baseball Prospectus came out with their annual PECOTA projections on Monday. It feels like yesterday when Chicago Cubs fans griped about the projections not giving their team much love at the tail end of the "World Series core" era. Oh, how things have changed. Heading into 2025, the team coming off back-to-back 83-win seasons is being looked upon favorably by the projection model.
PECOTA has the Cubs with the most wins in the division at 90.6. They have them finishing around 10 games better than the Milwaukee Brewers, with the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds within the 73-78 win range. The only teams in baseball with 90+ higher win projections are the Dodgers (shocker) and the Braves. Several teams are just on the cusp of hitting that 90-win projection including the Yankees, Rangers, Mets and Orioles.
That translates to an 86.9 percent chance of the Cubs making the postseason, with a 79.4 percent chance to win the division. Like the win total, only the Dodgers and Braves have higher chances. The Dodgers are, according to PECOTA, guaranteed to make the playoffs. The Cubs' odds of winning the World Series is 7.1 percent - with four teams with higher chances (Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Braves).
2025 Playoff Chances (PECOTA):
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 3, 2025
100% LAD
90% ATL
87% CHC
78% NYY BAL NYM
75% TEX
69% PHI
63% MIN HOU
62% ARI
58% SEA
49% TOR
38% SD
32% TB
31% KC
29% CLE
26% MIL
22% DET
19% STL
15% SF
12% BOS
8% LAA
6% PIT WSH
5% CIN
2% ATH
0% CWS MIA COL
One year ago, the 2024 Cubs were projected to win 80.2 games with just a 31.2 percent chance to make the playoffs. This did not end up being far off from their 83-win total. Now they are projected...quite high. Even better than the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Diamondbacks and Orioles. It feels surprising considering the talent those teams have and what they have accomplished in recent years.
Sure, it felt like they'd project more favorably than last year with the addition of Kyle Tucker, potentially having a more stable bullpen, hopefully, another leap from Pete Crow-Armstrong and the potential of impact of top prospect Matt Shaw. Heck, it's sensical to think they'd have them at the top of the division, which has some big question marks among all the teams within it. But holy cow those are some optimistic projections.
Of course, these are merely projections given to us by a computer simulation. It's designed to give an estimated range of what a team can win (thus why the numbers have decimal spots and not whole numbers). We know it's very unlikely only three teams will win 90+ games next year. The source of this data is not from a crystal ball or a message from Doctor Emmett Brown and Marty McFly, obviously. It's also worth noting that more moves are still potentially coming in baseball and that can change things. Remember, Cody Bellinger did not sign until spring training had already begun last year and he is far from the first big-name player to join a team that late in the offseason.
Time will tell what actually happens, the model has been fairly accurate over the years but has also missed the mark on teams throughout the years. It will never be a full predictor and it's not even designed to be. These are humans playing the game after all, not computers, and a lot can happen with down years from key players, injuries or even just some rotten luck. Or vice versa.