Sky-high free agent prices this winter make Cubs' focus on trades a smart move

The hot stove remains scorching in the days leading up to Christmas when, usually, the market takes a breath for a week or so until the calendar flips to January. After former Chicago Cubs outfielder Joc Pederson bagged a two-year, $37 million deal with an opt-out from the Texas Rangers, a rumored Cubs free-agent target, Walker Buehler, headed to Boston on a one-year pact worth $21.05 million.

It seems like free agent prices have been high all winter long - a prime example being the two years and $29 million Chicago gave left-hander Matthew Boyd, who made all of eight regular-season starts in 2024 and hasn't thrown 100 innings in a season since 2019.

Chicago has focused more on trades than free agency, with their primary free-agent pick-ups coming in the form of Boyd (2/$29M) and Carson Kelly (2/$11.5M), the badly-needed catcher to pair with Miguel Amaya. The blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker stole the show, but a deal for reliever Eli Morgan could also pay dividends in 2025.

Cubs' focus remains improving the pitching staff via trade

Don't expect Jed Hoyer to shift gears anytime soon. Substantive improvements to the roster will come through trades this winter, even after coming off 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith in the Tucker trade. Chicago still has seven top-100 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, and with many of them at Triple-A and no clear path to playing time in the big leagues, several make sense as trade chips.

This feels like a pivotal offseason for the organization. After several years of re-tooling and re-loading a once-decimated farm system, Hoyer faces an inflection point - one where stockpiling prospects rather than turning them into big-league pieces could ultimately cost him his job. He seems aware of that, as the team continues to scour the market for upgrades.

The team heavily pursued a deal for left-hander Jesus Luzardo in recent weeks before reported concerns over medicals shelved talks, and the Marlins pivoted to trade him to the Philadelphia Phillies last weekend. The team remains interested in Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, but isn't seen as the front-runner for the 23-year-old.

All signs point to more arms being added to the mix between now and Opening Day. Hoyer is concerned about potential regression and the injuries that hit every MLB team over the course of 162 games. But don't hold your breath on the Cubs pushing their chips in on a Corbin Burnes-level free agent; maybe some guys fall to them as we get deeper into the offseason, but the trade market remains the team's top focus - and rightfully so.