An Owen Caissie-for-Jesus Luzardo swap would come with tremendous risk

Still arbitration-eligible with the ability to dominate when healthy, Miami Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo is drawing trade interest from the Chicago Cubs - and rightfully so. When he's on the mound and at his best, he can be a real difference-maker for a big-league staff.

The problem for almost all of his career, though, has been injuries and his ability to take the ball every five days. He's made more than 20 starts only once and has pitched more than 101 innings just once, in 2023, when he emerged as a force in the Marlins rotation. That year, he made 32 outings, piled up 178 2/3 innings and 208 punchouts en route to a 3.55 FIP/3.58 ERA.

That performance drew the interest of numerous teams last winter - and it was clear the Cubs could benefit from his services. But with the signing of Shota Imanaga last offseason and the addition of Matthew Boyd this winter, the fit is less clear - especially at the rumored asking price: either Owen Caissie or James Triantos.

Caissie is a complete non-starter for me personally, despite Luzardo's upside. Even with a crowded outfield mix following the Kyle Tucker trade and an unclear path to everyday at-bats at the big-league level, Caissie could open the year at Iowa and come off the bench after getting called up to Chicago at some point next year.

Pegged as the #34 prospect in the league by MLB Pipeline, Caissie has really rocketed up rankings boards in recent years, as his bat has really picked up steam. He followed up a .918 OPS with Double-A Tennessee in 2023 with an .848 OPS at Iowa this year - and was mentioned as a potential September call-up for the Cubs.

That never came to be, but that doesn't mean the organization has soured on him. After all, the Kyle Tucker experience could be a one-and-done thing if he jumps in free agency next winter (which is very probable given the fact the Cubs will likely have to hand out a deal at least two times larger than Jason Heyward's franchise-record $184 million to keep him in town).

If that happens, having a prospect like Caissie as a potential option to take over right field isn't the worst thing in the world. I love that Hoyer is really in an aggressive headspace this winter after years of playing it safe at every turn. But if the Marlins' ask is Caissie for Luzardo, I'm walking away. Triantos is a fair ask and a player likely to be dealt given the lack of positional fit, but Caissie is where I draw the line - at least on a player with the checkered health record of Luzardo.