Cubs' signing of oft-injured Matthew Boyd is a big bet - and not a smart one

One of the worst-kept secrets this offseason has been that the Cubs are more likely to go bargain hunting rather than open up the checkbook for huge names. That strategy, while frustrating for fans, may work if the Cubs spend their dollars wisely, but it's important to remember that not everything in the discount aisle is of the highest quality.

Chicago has needed to address its rotation, and on Monday, they welcomed a new addition, coming to terms with free-agent lefty starter Matthew Boyd on a two-year $29 million deal. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA last season so on face value the $14.5 AAV over the course of just two years seems like a good deal.

There's a lot more than meets the eye, however. Boyd, 33, made just eight starts for Cleveland last season, coming off Tommy John surgery. The veteran southpaw hasn't logged a full starter's workload since 2019 when he made 32 starts for the Detroit Tigers and totaled 185 1/3 innings.

Only three times in his nine-year MLB career has Boyd topped 25 starts and 100 innings pitched, all of which came from 2017 to 2019. Even when healthy Boyd, who owns a 4.85 career ERA, has been inconsistent.

In 2024 he posted a stellar 10.44 K/9 rate paired with a below average home run rate of 0.91 HR/9. However, those numbers are very much outliers, as his career K/9 is a decent 8.83 and the long ball has long been a bugaboo for him with a career HR/9 of 1.56, even with him pitching the majority of his career in Detroit's pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Other options may have presented the Cubs more value in that price range

For just a couple of dollars more the Cubs could've signed Frankie Montas who agreed to a two-year $34 million contract with the New York Mets. Montas, like Boyd, is a bounce-back candidate who is also coming back from his own arm injuries.

However, unlike Boyd, Montas has a longer and more recent track record of success. Sure, Boyd's 2.72 ERA looks much more impressive than the 4.85 mark that Montas posted last season, but Montas also pitched nearly five times as many innings as Boyd.

Additionally, Montas has a more recent track record of success, posting ERA's of 3.37 and 4.05 in 2021 and 2022, respectively, before getting hurt in 2023. Peripherals also indicate that Montas has higher upside for at least acceptable performance. Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher with a fluctuating strikeout rate and non-elite control. Montas, on the other hand, owns a power sinker that generates groundballs at a solid rate (43.3 percent for his career), limiting the potential damage that can be done,

At this price point, you're banking on getting at least one of two things – an innings-eater who can provide decent performance or a high-ceiling pitcher with injury question marks. Boyd doesn't seem to provide either, and that makes betting on him a risky proposition.

Chicago might have been better off spending a couple extra dollars on Montas. Maybe they should have instead bet on a recovery from Walker Buehler. Perhaps reuniting with old friend Jose Quintana could've given them a solid innings-eater. Many other options existed in this price range that could have provided more.

At the end of the day, if the Cubs are going to pinch pennies, they have to spend what little they have wisely. Banking on Boyd to give them a solid return on the basis of just 39.2 innings last year is not a smart bet, and may not be money well spent.