Chicago Cubs 2024 Projections expect a major regression without Cody Bellinger

The Outfield

2023 Performances: 12.4

Cody Bellinger 4.1 WAR

Ian Happ 3.5 WAR

Seiya Suzuki 3.2 WAR

Mike Tauchman 1.8 WAR

Nelson Velazquez 0.1 WAR

Alexander Canario -0.1 WAR

Pete Crow-Armstrong -0.2 WAR

2024 Projections: 7.3 WAR

Ian Happ 2.8 WAR

Seiya Suzuki 2.2 WAR

Pete Crow-Armstrong 1.1 WAR

Mike Tauchman 1.1 WAR

Alexander Canario 0.1 WAR

Brennen Davis 0.0 WAR

This is a problematic change. In 2023 Cody Bellinger was the Comeback Player of the Year and for a while a legitimate MVP contender. He’s not currently on this roster which leaves 4.1 WAR in the ether. Beyond that, the 2024 projections expect Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Mike Tauchman to be less impressive versions of themselves.

It’s fantastic to see Pete Crow-Armstrong getting a little bit of love as an above-average regular, but if the Cubs were to have this level of production from their outfield it would be extremely difficult to imagine a world where they make the playoffs, let alone win a World Series. 

There is reason to expect Seiya Suzuki to have at least as good of a 2024 as his 2023 considering his big bounce-back at the end of the season, and Happ won a Gold Glove again last season while also finding his power a little bit so hopefully the projections are misleading a little bit in this area.