%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20viewBox%3D%220%200%201092.7%20200%22%20style%3D%22enable-background%3Anew%200%200%201092.7%20200%3B%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cstyle%20type%3D%22text%2Fcss%22%3E%0A%09.st0%7Bfill%3A%23231F20%3B%7D%0A%09.st1%7Bfill%3A%23293576%3B%7D%0A%09.st2%7Bfill%3A%23C82C2D%3B%7D%0A%09.st3%7Bfill%3A%23FFFFFF%3B%7D%0A%3C%2Fstyle%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Template%22%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Layer_2%22%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%2256.8%2C78.5%2073.1%2C78.5%2085.5%2C78.5%2085.5%2C36.3%2085.5%2C0%2068.8%2C0%2064.9%2C6.2%2063.3%2C8.7%2052%2C0%2025.5%2C0%2021.8%2C3.8%20%0A%09%092%2C23.8%202%2C176.2%2025%2C200%2061.5%2C200%2085.5%2C176.2%2085.5%2C121.5%2056.8%2C121.5%2056.8%2C176.2%2039.5%2C176.2%2039.5%2C32.4%2039.5%2C23.8%2056.8%2C23.8%2056.8%2C57.2%20%0A%09%09%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22143.9%2C104.2%20143.9%2C48.1%20143.9%2C24.2%20152.1%2C24.2%20153.2%2C24.2%20153.2%2C0%20152.1%2C0%20106.8%2C0%2093.9%2C0%2093.9%2C24.2%20%0A%09%09106.7%2C24.2%20106.7%2C63.4%20106.7%2C116.9%20106.7%2C175.8%20130.4%2C200%20169.2%2C200%20183%2C184.8%20191.2%2C175.8%20191.2%2C146.2%20191.2%2C96.1%20191.2%2C24.2%20%0A%09%09201.4%2C24.2%20201.4%2C0%20163.7%2C0%20158.7%2C0%20158.7%2C24.2%20163.7%2C24.2%20169.2%2C24.2%20169.2%2C75.2%20169.2%2C127.8%20169.2%2C174.1%20169.2%2C175.8%20%0A%09%09143.9%2C175.8%20143.9%2C152.9%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st3%22%20d%3D%22M220.3%2C168v8.3h-10.5V200h62.1h12.7l28.5-23.8v-66l-5.2-5.1l-7.8-7.6l7.8-7.8l2.5-2.5V60V25.7%0A%09%09c0%2C0.7-8.6-7.9-25.7-25.7h-43H230h-20.2v23.8h10.5v96.7V168z%20M257.5%2C23.8h22.2v60.5h-22.2V23.8z%20M257.5%2C110.3h22.2v50.2v15.8h-22.2%0A%09%09v-29.4V110.3z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st3%22%20d%3D%22M331.9%2C176.2h-10.5v6V200h42.8h21.4h10.5l1-0.9l27.4-22.9v-56.9v-9.1l-13-12.8l10.3-10.2V25.7%0A%09%09c0%2C0.7-8.6-7.9-25.7-25.7h-74.8v23.8h10.5V45V176.2z%20M391.4%2C176.2h-5.8h-16.5v-66h22.2v17.9V176.2z%20M369.2%2C23.8h22.2v60.5H376h-6.9%0A%09%09v-5.6V23.8z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22443.3%2C175.8%20433%2C175.8%20433%2C200%20463.5%2C200%20475%2C200%20489.5%2C200%20489.5%2C175.8%20480%2C175.8%20480%2C147.6%20%0A%09%09480%2C25.5%20489.5%2C25.5%20489.5%2C0%20433%2C0%20433%2C25.5%20443.3%2C25.5%20443.3%2C130.4%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22505.6%2C175.8%20497.9%2C175.8%20497.9%2C200%20541.3%2C200%20552.9%2C200%20583.6%2C200%20595.1%2C187.7%20595.1%2C153.9%20%0A%09%09595.1%2C140.7%20566.9%2C140.7%20566.9%2C159.5%20566.9%2C175.8%20542.6%2C175.8%20542.6%2C160.5%20542.6%2C115.8%20556.6%2C115.8%20556.6%2C133%20580.1%2C133%20%0A%09%09580.1%2C67.7%20556.6%2C67.7%20556.6%2C85%20542.6%2C85%20542.6%2C25.5%20566.9%2C25.5%20566.9%2C60.8%20595.1%2C60.8%20595.1%2C0%20497.9%2C0%20497.9%2C25.5%20505.6%2C25.5%20%0A%09%09505.6%2C155.6%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22682.8%2C73.5%20682.8%2C0%20669.5%2C0%20659%2C5.5%20652.7%2C0%20627.3%2C0%20603.5%2C24.2%20603.5%2C91.7%20628.1%2C116.2%20654.3%2C116.2%20%0A%09%09654.3%2C128.5%20654.3%2C176.2%20630.8%2C176.2%20630.8%2C140.6%20630.8%2C128.7%20604.5%2C128.7%20604.5%2C151%20604.5%2C200%20619.1%2C200%20625%2C200%20629.8%2C195.2%20%0A%09%09630.7%2C195.9%20637%2C200%20666.3%2C200%20687.5%2C176.2%20687.5%2C107.3%20687.5%2C106.8%20667%2C83%20635.5%2C83%20635.5%2C24.2%20656.8%2C24.2%20656.8%2C73.5%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st2%22%20points%3D%22774%2C78.5%20774.8%2C78.5%20786.4%2C78.5%20802.8%2C78.5%20802.8%2C0.7%20802.8%2C0%20786%2C0%20780.5%2C8.7%20769.3%2C0%20742.8%2C0%20%0A%09%09719.3%2C23.8%20719.3%2C83.3%20719.3%2C176.2%20739%2C196.6%20742.3%2C200%20778.8%2C200%20802.8%2C176.2%20802.8%2C167%20802.8%2C121.5%20786.4%2C121.5%20774.8%2C121.5%20%0A%09%09774%2C121.5%20774%2C176.2%20756.8%2C176.2%20756.8%2C50.3%20756.8%2C23.8%20774%2C23.8%20774%2C33.1%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st2%22%20d%3D%22M821.4%2C176.2h-10.2V200h11.2h45.8v-23.8h-6.5h-3v-65h5.5h11.7v7.6v47.7v9.7l14.7%2C23.3l0.3%2C0.4h25.2v-19v-4.8%0A%09%09h-5.5V140v-25.6l-13.3-13.3l-0.2-0.2l2.2-1.5l11.3-7.8v-2.5V24.2L882.4%2C0h-18.2h-11.6h-41.5v24.2h10.2v132.1V176.2z%20M858.7%2C24.2%0A%09%09h5.5h12.5V87h-12.5h-5.5V24.2z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st2%22%20points%3D%22934.8%2C166.2%20934.8%2C175.8%20924.5%2C175.8%20924.5%2C200%20981%2C200%20981%2C175.8%20971.5%2C175.8%20971.5%2C133.1%20%0A%09%09971.5%2C81.9%20971.5%2C25.5%20981%2C25.5%20981%2C9.1%20981%2C0%20942%2C0%20930.5%2C0%20924.5%2C0%20924.5%2C25.5%20930.5%2C25.5%20934.8%2C25.5%20934.8%2C119%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st2%22%20d%3D%22M1089.9%2C87.2V25.7c0%2C0.6-6.4-5.8-19.3-19c-2-2.1-4.2-4.3-6.5-6.7h-31h-43.7v23.8h10.5v24.2v55.5v72.8h-10.5%0A%09%09V200h74.8l28.5-23.8v-66l-13-12.8L1089.9%2C87.2z%20M1059.4%2C176.2h-22.2v-66h22.2V176.2z%20M1059.4%2C84.2h-22.2V57.5V23.8h22.2V25V84.2z%22%0A%09%09%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
Chicago Cubs 2024 Projections expect a major regression without Cody Bellinger
An in-depth analysis of the 2024 Chicago Cubs' projected performance compared to their overachieving 2023 season. Find out if they can maintain their success.
Despite a colossal collapse at the end of the season you’ll be hard-pressed to find someone that doesn’t believe that the 2023 Chicago Cubs outperformed their projections. While the optimism is high based on that overproduction, the signing of Shota Imanaga, the trade for Michael Busch, and the signing of new skipper Craig Counsell, the question is:
Which team is better on paper, the 2023 Chicago Cubs actual performance or the 2024 Chicago Cubs projected performance?
We’ll be utilizing Fangraphs for this piece and looking specifically at their WAR from 2023 and their projected WAR for 2024. This isn’t a perfect exercise and teams often overperform or underperform relative to their projections all the time, but it’s January so this is what we’re resorting to.
The Rotation
2023 Performances: 14.1 WAR
Justin Steele 4.9 WAR
Kyle Hendricks 2.8 WAR
Marcus Stroman 2.7 WAR
Jameson Taillon 1.6 WAR
Drew Smyly 0.9 WAR/Javier Assad 0.9 WAR/Jordan Wicks 0.3 WAR
2024 Projections: 11.5 WAR
Justin Steele 3.3 WAR
Shota Imanaga 2.6 WAR
Jameson Taillon 1.8 WAR
Kyle Hendricks 1.4 WAR
Jordan Wicks 1.2 WAR/Javier Assad 0.7 WAR/Drew Smyly 0.5 WAR
The obvious problem in this situation is not the loss of Marcus Stroman as the projections expect Shota Imanaga to produce almost identical WAR to what the Cubs lost. The problem is that even with Jordan Wicks and Jameson Taillon expected to have better seasons, the remainder of the rotation is expected to come back down to earth.
Justin Steele came out of nowhere (to those not in the Cubs’ ecosystem) to be a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate. Kyle Hendricks bounced back from injuries in a way that no one could have imagined. Javier Assad and Drew Smyly proved to be capable swingmen at different points throughout the season.
For as much as the team underperformed down the stretch, they had spent the majority of the season overperforming and Fangraphs unfortunately doesn’t anticipate that continuing into 2024.
The Bullpen
2023 Performances: 3.0 WAR
Adbert Alzolay 1.5 WAR
Julian Merryweather 0.9 WAR
Mark Leiter Jr. 0.6 WAR
Michael Fulmer 0.4 WAR
Daniel Palencia 0.3 WAR
Luke Little 0.1 WAR
Keegan Thompson 0.1 WAR
Brandon Hughes 0.0 WAR
Michael Rucker -0.1 WAR
Anthony Kay -0.1 WAR
Jose Cuas -0.1 WAR
Brad Boxberger -0.2 WAR
Jeremiah Estrada -0.4 WAR
2024 Projections: 3.4 WAR
Adbert Alzolay 0.7 WAR
Julian Merryweather 0.5 WAR
Hector Neris 0.4 WAR
Mark Leiter Jr. 0.4 WAR
Ben Brown 0.4 WAR
Yency Almonte 0.3 WAR
Daniel Palencia 0.3 WAR
Luke Little 0.3 WAR
Jose Cuas 0.1 WAR
Michael Rucker 0.1 WAR
Keegan Thompson 0.0 WAR
Cam Sanders 0.0 WAR
Ethan Roberts 0.0 WAR
Bailey Horn -0.1 WAR
There is a certain level of this that is misleading, but bullpens are such a crap shoot, to begin with, that it’s tough to really get too in the weeds about it. The 2024 team is projected to be a better bullpen than the 2023 team which should be music to a Cubs fan's ears but there’s a certain level of mystery that surrounds the situation because the 2023 team had five guys combine for a -0.9 WAR and the 2024 team is projected to have only one guy go negative.
If that’s the case then the Cubs will be over the moon and won’t be concerned about the regression they’ll see from Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. or the lack of progression they see in Daniel Palencia.
The truth is probably a little more difficult than the projections laid out. If I told you that Alzolay, Merryweather, and Leiter Jr. would all regress after being the only trustworthy pieces in a bad bullpen you’d be rightfully concerned heading into the 2024 season. The Cubs have added interesting pieces with Neris, and Almonte and it will be nice to see guys like Little, Cuas, and even Ben Brown get some use out of a bullpen run by someone like Counsell with an aptitude for getting the most out of it but this is definitely an area to address near the trade deadline.
The Infield
2023 Performances: 12.5 WAR
Dansby Swanson 4.9 WAR
Nico Hoerner 4.7 WAR
Christopher Morel 1.4 WAR
Yan Gomes 1.0 WAR
Nick Madrigal 0.9 WAR
Patrick Wisdom 0.7 WAR
Miguel Amaya 0.6 WAR
Jeimer Candelario 0.2 WAR
Miles Mastrobuoni 0.2 WAR
Tucker Barnhart 0.2 WAR
Jared Young -0.2 WAR
Edwin Rios -0.3 WAR
Eric Hosmer -0.4 WAR
Matt Mervis -0.6 WAR
Trey Mancini -0.8 WAR
2024 Projections: 12.1 WAR
Nico Hoerner 3.3 WAR
Dansby Swanson 2.9 WAR
Christopher Morel 1.3 WAR
Nick Madrigal 1.1 WAR
Miguel Amaya 1.0 WAR
Yan Gomes 0.9 WAR
Michael Busch 0.8 WAR
Patrick Wisdom 0.4 WAR
Miles Mastrobuoni 0.2 WAR
Matt Mervis 0.1 WAR
Matt Shaw 0.1 WAR
Despite getting the massive anchors of Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Edwin Rios’s combined -1.5 WAR off of the roster the Cubs are projected to have a lower infield WAR than the 2023 team thanks to regressions from Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, and Yan Gomes. The projections expect Nick Madrigal and Miguel Amaya to improve a little bit and they expect Matt Mervis to be at least league average which would be considerably better than he was last year.
Much like with the rotation, the projections are basically saying that they believe that the Cubs dramatically overperformed their base-level skills for a majority of their infield players. Hoerner and Swanson’s combined 6.2 WAR is an extremely palatable number, but considering the contract that Swanson is on you have to hope for something a little better than that.
The big elephant in the room in this situation is that we didn’t even touch on Cody Bellinger’s 4.1 WAR from last season. We’re going to consider him an outfielder for this exercise since that’s where a majority of his time was spent last season, but if he were on this 2024 team he’d likely slot in at first base to allow for Michael Busch to either play third base or DH and keep Pete Crow-Armstrong’s glove in center field.
The Outfield
2023 Performances: 12.4
Cody Bellinger 4.1 WAR
Ian Happ 3.5 WAR
Seiya Suzuki 3.2 WAR
Mike Tauchman 1.8 WAR
Nelson Velazquez 0.1 WAR
Alexander Canario -0.1 WAR
Pete Crow-Armstrong -0.2 WAR
2024 Projections: 7.3 WAR
Ian Happ 2.8 WAR
Seiya Suzuki 2.2 WAR
Pete Crow-Armstrong 1.1 WAR
Mike Tauchman 1.1 WAR
Alexander Canario 0.1 WAR
Brennen Davis 0.0 WAR
This is a problematic change. In 2023 Cody Bellinger was the Comeback Player of the Year and for a while a legitimate MVP contender. He’s not currently on this roster which leaves 4.1 WAR in the ether. Beyond that, the 2024 projections expect Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Mike Tauchman to be less impressive versions of themselves.
It’s fantastic to see Pete Crow-Armstrong getting a little bit of love as an above-average regular, but if the Cubs were to have this level of production from their outfield it would be extremely difficult to imagine a world where they make the playoffs, let alone win a World Series.
There is reason to expect Seiya Suzuki to have at least as good of a 2024 as his 2023 considering his big bounce-back at the end of the season, and Happ won a Gold Glove again last season while also finding his power a little bit so hopefully the projections are misleading a little bit in this area.
2023 Performances: 42 Total WAR
2024 Projections: 34.3 Total WAR
The 2023 Chicago Cubs outperformed their projections at almost every turn and they missed the playoffs. That team had moments of looking special but at the end of the day, they didn’t have enough to make it to the biggest stage.
Unfortunately, the 2024 projections expect the Cubs to regress pretty aggressively almost across the board. The bullpen is currently the only area of the team expected to be better than the 2023 team and even there the projections expect worse performances from the names we came to trust out of the bullpen in 2023.
The thing to keep in mind when looking at these projections is this:
The Cubs tend to outperform their projections, and Craig Counsell tends to get the most out of teams that aren’t projected to be all that great on paper.
2024 will be tough. The division has gotten considerably stronger, and the NL as a whole looks to be pretty competitive for those Wild Card spots. However, as we head into the season the thing we all need to keep in mind is that if someone has to win the World Series at the end of the year, it might as well be us.
More Chicago Cubs News
feed