2023 Performances: 42 Total WAR
2024 Projections: 34.3 Total WAR
The 2023 Chicago Cubs outperformed their projections at almost every turn and they missed the playoffs. That team had moments of looking special but at the end of the day, they didn’t have enough to make it to the biggest stage.
Unfortunately, the 2024 projections expect the Cubs to regress pretty aggressively almost across the board. The bullpen is currently the only area of the team expected to be better than the 2023 team and even there the projections expect worse performances from the names we came to trust out of the bullpen in 2023.
The thing to keep in mind when looking at these projections is this:
The Cubs tend to outperform their projections, and Craig Counsell tends to get the most out of teams that aren’t projected to be all that great on paper.
2024 will be tough. The division has gotten considerably stronger, and the NL as a whole looks to be pretty competitive for those Wild Card spots. However, as we head into the season the thing we all need to keep in mind is that if someone has to win the World Series at the end of the year, it might as well be us.