Chicago Cubs 2024 Projections expect a major regression without Cody Bellinger

Despite a colossal collapse at the end of the season you’ll be hard-pressed to find someone that doesn’t believe that the 2023 Chicago Cubs outperformed their projections. While the optimism is high based on that overproduction, the signing of Shota Imanaga, the trade for Michael Busch, and the signing of new skipper Craig Counsell, the question is: 

Which team is better on paper, the 2023 Chicago Cubs actual performance or the 2024 Chicago Cubs projected performance?

We’ll be utilizing Fangraphs for this piece and looking specifically at their WAR from 2023 and their projected WAR for 2024. This isn’t a perfect exercise and teams often overperform or underperform relative to their projections all the time, but it’s January so this is what we’re resorting to.

The Rotation

2023 Performances: 14.1 WAR

Justin Steele 4.9 WAR

Kyle Hendricks 2.8 WAR

Marcus Stroman 2.7 WAR

Jameson Taillon 1.6 WAR

Drew Smyly 0.9 WAR/Javier Assad 0.9 WAR/Jordan Wicks 0.3 WAR

2024 Projections: 11.5 WAR

Justin Steele 3.3 WAR

Shota Imanaga 2.6 WAR

Jameson Taillon 1.8 WAR

Kyle Hendricks 1.4 WAR

Jordan Wicks 1.2 WAR/Javier Assad 0.7 WAR/Drew Smyly 0.5 WAR

The obvious problem in this situation is not the loss of Marcus Stroman as the projections expect Shota Imanaga to produce almost identical WAR to what the Cubs lost. The problem is that even with Jordan Wicks and Jameson Taillon expected to have better seasons, the remainder of the rotation is expected to come back down to earth.

Justin Steele came out of nowhere (to those not in the Cubs’ ecosystem) to be a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate. Kyle Hendricks bounced back from injuries in a way that no one could have imagined. Javier Assad and Drew Smyly proved to be capable swingmen at different points throughout the season.

For as much as the team underperformed down the stretch, they had spent the majority of the season overperforming and Fangraphs unfortunately doesn’t anticipate that continuing into 2024. 

The Bullpen

2023 Performances: 3.0 WAR

Adbert Alzolay 1.5 WAR

Julian Merryweather 0.9 WAR

Mark Leiter Jr. 0.6 WAR

Michael Fulmer 0.4 WAR

Daniel Palencia 0.3 WAR

Luke Little 0.1 WAR

Keegan Thompson 0.1 WAR

Brandon Hughes 0.0 WAR

Michael Rucker -0.1 WAR

Anthony Kay -0.1 WAR

Jose Cuas -0.1 WAR

Brad Boxberger -0.2 WAR

Jeremiah Estrada -0.4 WAR

2024 Projections: 3.4 WAR

Adbert Alzolay 0.7 WAR

Julian Merryweather 0.5 WAR

Hector Neris 0.4 WAR

Mark Leiter Jr. 0.4 WAR

Ben Brown 0.4 WAR

Yency Almonte 0.3 WAR

Daniel Palencia 0.3 WAR

Luke Little 0.3 WAR

Jose Cuas 0.1 WAR

Michael Rucker 0.1 WAR

Keegan Thompson 0.0 WAR

Cam Sanders 0.0 WAR

Ethan Roberts 0.0 WAR

Bailey Horn -0.1 WAR

There is a certain level of this that is misleading, but bullpens are such a crap shoot, to begin with, that it’s tough to really get too in the weeds about it. The 2024 team is projected to be a better bullpen than the 2023 team which should be music to a Cubs fan's ears but there’s a certain level of mystery that surrounds the situation because the 2023 team had five guys combine for a -0.9 WAR and the 2024 team is projected to have only one guy go negative.

If that’s the case then the Cubs will be over the moon and won’t be concerned about the regression they’ll see from Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. or the lack of progression they see in Daniel Palencia.

The truth is probably a little more difficult than the projections laid out. If I told you that Alzolay, Merryweather, and Leiter Jr. would all regress after being the only trustworthy pieces in a bad bullpen you’d be rightfully concerned heading into the 2024 season. The Cubs have added interesting pieces with Neris, and Almonte and it will be nice to see guys like Little, Cuas, and even Ben Brown get some use out of a bullpen run by someone like Counsell with an aptitude for getting the most out of it but this is definitely an area to address near the trade deadline. 

The Outfield

2023 Performances: 12.4

Cody Bellinger 4.1 WAR

Ian Happ 3.5 WAR

Seiya Suzuki 3.2 WAR

Mike Tauchman 1.8 WAR

Nelson Velazquez 0.1 WAR

Alexander Canario -0.1 WAR

Pete Crow-Armstrong -0.2 WAR

2024 Projections: 7.3 WAR

Ian Happ 2.8 WAR

Seiya Suzuki 2.2 WAR

Pete Crow-Armstrong 1.1 WAR

Mike Tauchman 1.1 WAR

Alexander Canario 0.1 WAR

Brennen Davis 0.0 WAR

This is a problematic change. In 2023 Cody Bellinger was the Comeback Player of the Year and for a while a legitimate MVP contender. He’s not currently on this roster which leaves 4.1 WAR in the ether. Beyond that, the 2024 projections expect Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Mike Tauchman to be less impressive versions of themselves.

It’s fantastic to see Pete Crow-Armstrong getting a little bit of love as an above-average regular, but if the Cubs were to have this level of production from their outfield it would be extremely difficult to imagine a world where they make the playoffs, let alone win a World Series. 

There is reason to expect Seiya Suzuki to have at least as good of a 2024 as his 2023 considering his big bounce-back at the end of the season, and Happ won a Gold Glove again last season while also finding his power a little bit so hopefully the projections are misleading a little bit in this area.

2023 Performances: 42 Total WAR

2024 Projections: 34.3 Total WAR

The 2023 Chicago Cubs outperformed their projections at almost every turn and they missed the playoffs. That team had moments of looking special but at the end of the day, they didn’t have enough to make it to the biggest stage.

Unfortunately, the 2024 projections expect the Cubs to regress pretty aggressively almost across the board. The bullpen is currently the only area of the team expected to be better than the 2023 team and even there the projections expect worse performances from the names we came to trust out of the bullpen in 2023.

The thing to keep in mind when looking at these projections is this:

The Cubs tend to outperform their projections, and Craig Counsell tends to get the most out of teams that aren’t projected to be all that great on paper. 

2024 will be tough. The division has gotten considerably stronger, and the NL as a whole looks to be pretty competitive for those Wild Card spots. However, as we head into the season the thing we all need to keep in mind is that if someone has to win the World Series at the end of the year, it might as well be us.

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