Jacob Misiorowski's historic May sends a clear message to the rival Cubs

June has arrived and, once again, despite a big offseason in which the Chicago Cubs rebuilt their bullpen, traded for Edward Cabrera, and opened up their wallet to add Alex Bregman, they find themselves staring up at the Milwaukee Brewers. They're only five games back, but the gap has felt much wider between the two teams given how much better Chicago's northern rivals have played of late. Where Craig Counsell's club went 13-16 in May, Pat Murphy led his team to the league's best record at 19-7. The Brewers were better in many meaningful ways, but especially when it comes to pitching.

Last month, Milwaukee paced the league with a 2.48 ERA from their starters, while the Cubs got a ghastly 5.33 ERA, good for third-worst in baseball. Injuries will always be the big what-if for this team, with Matthew Boyd and Cabrera missing time and Cade Horton and Justin Steele out for most or all of the season, but it's not as if their healthy starters gave them much to write home about, Ben Brown excluded. Shota Imanaga (5.80 ERA in May) and Jameson Taillon (6.66 ERA) combined to give up 20(!) home runs and string together a series of uncompetitive starts that would've made it hard even if the Cubs offense was firing on all cylinders.

The starkest contrast comes when looking at the teams' aces. Brown has been Chicago's best starter since being thrust into this role, but the sample is still too small to definitively say he is a reliable pitcher of this caliber. Imanaga did appear to be flashing back to his dominant 2024 form to start the year, but again, May set those hopes back considerably. The Brewers, meanwhile, got a month out of their homegrown starter Jacob Misiorowski that could only be described as historic — 38 1/3 innings with a 0.23 ERA, 0.63 FIP, and 57 strikeouts.

Misiorowski was always a highly-touted prospect, but the question was whether his control would be enough to thrive with his 99.9 MPH average fastball velocity. Spoiler: it has been. After walking 11 percent of batters last year — an 11th percentile walk rate — he's dropped that to just 7 percent in 2026. He's also somehow massively improving on an already strong 29.7 percent whiff rate and 32 percent strikeout rate in his rookie campaign to video game numbers of 38.7 and 39.6 percent, respectively.

Nobody in the Cubs organization is even close to that level of arm talent, let alone execution. Horton was their best bet coming off his own stellar rookie year with a 2.67 ERA, yet even he's simply not that kind of overwhelming pitcher at his best. Jaxon Wiggins might be the closest to that model with a fastball that sits around 96 to 98 MPH, but he's still an unfinished product in the minors with major injury concerns.

The Brewers continue to lap the Cubs in pitching development

Come October, even if Chicago catches up to Milwaukee, that's one advantage the Brewers will have should they face off once again in the divisional round. A singular ace can take over a five-game series and make the margin for error slim to nil for the opposing team. Assuming the Cubs don't continue to fall off, Jed Hoyer is expected to aim for that kind of starter at the deadline. That could be a controllable name, like Joe Ryan or Sandy Alcantara, or a high-profile rental, like Tarik Skubal. Even that might not be enough to bridge the gap between these rotations right now.

Misiorowski is the standout, but the Brewers have again shown their ability to piece together stellar pitching staffs and target the right arms that they can develop. Case in point, Kyle Harrison. Acquired from Boston in their deal for Caleb Durbin, his ERA is actually slightly better than his hard-throwing rotation mate at 1.57. Chad Patrick, Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby, Logan Henderson, and more have also combined to be a part of their innings-eating philosophy. Young starter Brandon Sproat, despite his struggles, also boasts immense, strikeout-heavy talent, and Quinn Priester is still working his way back from thoracic outlet surgery.

The Brewers have built a pitching machine that keeps churning out arms designed to dominate in the modern era and targets starters they can take to the next level. Corbin Burnes, Peralta, and more thrived in this system and then were shipped off to restock the seemingly endless depth this team continues to pull from. With a payroll nearly double the size, the Cubs don't have to be on that level of consistency, but to really compete with Milwaukee, they need to narrow that developmental gap and show they're capable of more steadily churning out young starters that can anchor a rotation and elevating the arms they acquire, like Cabrera.

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