David Peterson has become the perfect low-cost Cubs reunion candidate for 2027

Ever since the Chicago Cubs reinvented their rotation at the trade deadline, Clay Holmes' name has been brought up time and again as a starter worth keeping around beyond 2026. The reasoning is obvious — the former Met is a ground-ball demon that, so far, has been pitching exactly as hoped in front of this elite defense. In 29 innings so far on the North Side, he has a 1.55 ERA with a 67.5% ground-ball rate that plays up in front of a group that, even without Dansby Swanson, still fields premium gloves in Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman.

Bringing back Holmes, however, might be more challenging than hoped. While pitching in front of a field of Gold Glovers has made a good impression on him so far, the reality is that, at 33 years old, a lot of teams still see his skill set as remarkably valuable. The tenured veteran is expected to be among the more enticing fallback options for teams that either don't land Tarik Skubal or aren't willing to go to those lengths, meaning his price could become surprisingly uncomfortable quickly. The Cubs have over $100 million coming off the books next year, but they've more often than not been reluctant with older pitchers that get outside of their projections.

Whether or not they bring back Holmes, they shouldn't hesitate to reunite with another of their midseason acquisitions in the offseason — David Peterson. The right-hander has far and away exceeded all expectations since Jed Hoyer acquired him in a quick, lower-profile move to save an ailing rotation. In 55 1/3 innings since being traded, he owns a solid 3.90 ERA and 4.31 FIP, which would be perfectly fine for a back-end starter. However, that doesn't tell the full story.

Peterson has started 11 games so far in Chicago, but only one of them, his disastrous 10-run blow-up against the Cardinals, could be classified as bad. Scratch that disaster, and only twice has he given up more than two earned runs. Granted, he's probably not that good, but it's illustrative of how much he, like Holmes, has benefited from this defense and a change of scenery.

A 48.1% ground-ball rate in a Cubs uniform isn't quite as dominant as Holmes, but it's still what this team needs from the lefty Peterson to get success. The knock against him is that the underlying stats haven't been pretty all year and that his results have been remarkably inconsistent for his career, fluctuating between an ERA in the mid-to-low threes and high-fives. Looking at the past five years, though, his FIP has never been outright terrible, peaking at 4.34 in 2023. It all suggests a consistently solid defense behind him could help stabilize his best self.

The Cubs need reliable back-end arms as much as an ace

Back in April, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter predicted Peterson would get a solid $39 million contract upon hitting the open market. That's likely a little generous now after his disastrous start to the year with the Mets, even with him bouncing back so far in Chicago. If the Cubs wanted, there's a chance to get a potential bargain by handing him another contract, whether it be a one-year deal to re-establish value or a multi-year pact. Again, his skill set meshes with Hoyer's defense-first approach to team-building, and for Peterson, it might make sense to stay with the team that revitalized him.

He's not an exciting, high-end name that Cubs fans will want to see prioritized after a year in which they've trailed behind only the Athletics in home runs per nine innings. They need somebody at the top who can get strikeouts and be a reliable stopper every five days. However, they're about to see most of their rotation hit the open market, including Holmes, Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd, and Shota Imanaga. Their remaining arms are also full of glaring question marks. Justin Steele's delayed recovery and Ben Brown's recurring neck ailment create questions about how effectively they can contribute, and Edward Cabrera has yet to inspire confidence since his trade over.

Pitching is expensive, and the Cubs have to add a lot of it with how their remaining group is constructed. Peterson might be one of their best chances to secure an effective starter at a lower cost that gives them flexibility to add bigger pieces later in the offseason. It just makes too much sense for Hoyer to keep betting on the lefty and his defense to keep the partnership working.

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