Cubs have chance to rewrite payroll narrative with looming Seiya Suzuki decision

It's hard to not be optimistic about the trajectory of the 2026 Chicago Cubs. While they still face a steep climb if they hope to catch the Brewers for the NL Central crown, they've got the best offense and defense in baseball with a pitching staff that's greatly improved after the trade deadline. With even more pitching reinforcements on the way from the injured list, the Cubs should be a force to be reckoned with come October for even the sport's very best clubs.

That's great for this year, but the outlook for 2027 and beyond is a lot murkier. The Cubs were smart to lock up Nico Hoerner on an extension earlier this year, but they still have a huge group of players ticketed for free agency. While Ian Happ, Carson Kelly, Shota Imanaga, and deadline additions like Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman will all be tough losses, the biggest piece of the puzzle by far the Cubs risk losing is right fielder Seiya Suzuki.

Suzuki surprisingly found himself in the thick of trade rumors earlier this summer. While the Cubs thankfully made the right call and kept him on the team, that raises questions about whether they see him as part of their future. If they don't, that's something they ought to change their minds about in a hurry. Suzuki is the 22nd-best hitter in MLB this year by wRC+, and he's been remarkably consistent. Over the last four years, his 130 wRC+ is tied with stars like Pete Alonso and Rafael Devers.

Between that exceptional offense and his impressive improvements with the glove this year, the Cubs would be a lot worse off next year if Suzuki is playing elsewhere. Entertaining possible replacements is always necessary with free agency on the horizon, however, and the Cubs' needs are undeniably greater on the pitching side of things.

While the team's rotation options for next year are plentiful on paper, in practice there's a lot of questions. Justin Steele won't have started a game in nearly two years when he returns to the rotation. Ben Brown will have never made even ten starts in the regular season at the big league level due to injuries. Edward Cabrera has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness all year. Cade Horton might not pitch at all, and deadline addition Braxton Garrett is more of a flier than anything else.

That group of five options, Javier Assad and Colin Rea, make up the team's entire rotation mix headed into 2027. The Cubs will need to add multiple starters to that group if they're going to have enough starting pitching to make it through next season, and that's going to cost money. The argument from many pundits and media members, including The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma, has been that the Cubs simply won't spend enough to keep Suzuki when they need to invest in their rotation.

The Cubs' budget for next year is in better shape than you might think

In total, the Cubs have more than $120 million coming off the books as they head into the offseason. Some of that money will be eaten up by raises for Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong as their extensions kick in, as well as arbitration-level pieces like Michael Busch, but that still should be plenty of money with which to bring back Suzuki while upgrading the rotation.

Perhaps that wouldn't be the case if the Cubs were going to make a full-court press to recruit someone of Tarik Skubal's caliber, but their decisions to pass on players like Dylan Cease and Max Fried in recent years makes it clear that the Cubs aren't likely to shop in that tier of the market. If the Cubs continue to address their rotation through the middle tier of free agency and trades like they have in the past, there's no reason they couldn't also make a real run at retaining Suzuki.

It would be more difficult to keep Suzuki in the fold if other position players coming off the books needed to be retained or replaced, but the Cubs don't seem to be planning on doing that. Owen Ayers appears to be all but anointed as Carson Kelly's replacement behind the plate at this point, and a down season from Ian Happ makes it a lot easier to imagine the combination of Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez approximating his production next year than that of Suzuki.

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