Cubs may have uphill battle to keep Clay Holmes after latest MLB insider intel

Clay Holmes has been a natural fit for the Chicago Cubs, posting a 1.96 ERA through his first four starts with the team. Given that the Cubs offer the best defense in baseball, it's no real surprise to see Holmes thriving in Chicago. It should also be no surprise that the Cubs likely will have some interest in signing Holmes to a new contract after this season.

Holmes has a player option but assuming health, he's almost certainly going to test free agency. The early word from FanSided's Robert Murray is that Holmes is expected to have a healthy market. Talking about the free-agent starting pitching options behind Tarik Skubal this offseason, Murray told the Just Baseball podcast that Holmes will be "incredibly popular".

Cubs get unwelcome Clay Holmes update with free agency decision looming

As currently constructed, the entire Cubs' starting rotation is set for free agency this winter. That ignores the reality of the starting pitchers the Cubs do have under control next season.

Ben Brown has suffered a setback in his recovery from a stress reaction in his neck, Cade Horton will likely miss most of the 2027 season, and it will be Justin Steele's first full-season back from UCL surgery. As for Edward Cabrera, he likely will be in the rotation next season, but it's hard to view him as anything but a project for the Cubs at this point.

Safe to say pitching will be the focus for the Cubs during the offseason. It's also fair to assume that Holmes is the near the top of the list in terms of pitchers that Jed Hoyer and Co. would like to bring back.

That is where the idea of Holmes being considered the best fallback option to Skubal on the free-agent market could be problematic for the Cubs. The Cubs have routinely proved over the past five years that they won't go to the top-of-the-market to address their need for pitching. Sure, they were linked to Dylan Cease last winter, but they bowed out of the bidding once it reached $200 million.

No, Holmes' bidding shouldn't reach that level but if the over is being taken on his next contract, chances are it won't be the Cubs making that deal. It just wouldn't match how the front office has operated since signing Yu Darvish before the 2018 season. Though, if there were a time to make an exception, it would be when they have over $100 million coming off their books, as will be the case this offseason.

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