Cubs' remaining schedule leaves little margin for error in tightening NL Wild Card race

At last, the Chicago Cubs are nearing the end of the rollercoaster. 2026 has not been a smooth ride, to say the least, with high highs that included two ten-game winning streaks and devastating lows, like, well, the ten-game losing streak right after and the many pitching injuries. Yet, here they stand with only ten games remaining in the regular season, still clinging for dear life to the first Wild Card spot. Their play over the last month, alongside a massive surge from the Phillies, Padres, and, to a lesser degree, the Diamondbacks, has made this a much tighter race than once imagined.

Back on August 14, the North Siders were riding high, sitting at a season-high 21 games above .500, just three games out from the Milwaukee Brewers, and a very healthy six-game lead over everyone else for the top Wild Card. A 12-17 record since then now leaves them just a half-game up on Philadelphia, 1 1/2 games above San Diego, and 4 ahead of Arizona, all while their rivals pulled away with the division yet again. Needless to say, they have their work cut out for them if they want to secure home-field advantage for the three-game series.

Standing in the Cubs' way of locking up that final spot is a bit of a mixed bag, schedule-wise. First, though, they have one more game with the Braves on Wednesday. The good news is they'll be facing JR Ritchie instead of Chris Sale, giving them a real chance to come away with an encouraging series win if Shota Imanaga can come through with another solid start.

The Chicago Cubs' remaining schedule is full of fortunate breaks

The rest of the way includes a bad Reds squad, a middling Marlins team that should be eliminated by the time they come to Wrigley, and a solid Red Sox team in Boston whose seeding already seems sewn up. In other words, three very different opponents that offer their own challenges and reasons for optimism.

• 9/18-9/20 at Reds
• 9/22-9/24 vs. Marlins
• 9/25-9/27 at Red Sox

Each of the remaining series is in perfect order, difficulty-wise. Through their first ten games, the Cubs have cleaned up the Reds, winning seven so far, including two of three in their previous match-up at Great American Ballpark. Unfortunately, they will have to face Chase Burns in the opener, who helped Cincinnati get a win and take the series at Wrigley Field the last time these two teams matched up. Even with his sparkling 2.80 ERA and 3.18 FIP, this is the best option for Chicago to rack up some wins.

While they won't have anything to play for, the Marlins will still be a moderate bump in difficulty. The Cubs should miss Sandy Alcantara at the very least, and it's not like Miami has been playing particularly well otherwise, going 5-8 in September, with two of those losses courtesy of Craig Counsell's club. Of all the pitchers, though, it was Clay Holmes who laid an egg with eight runs given up, serving as a reminder that they can still be dangerous

Boston is the best team the Cubs could get last by far, since they'll all but certainly have little to play for, and they'd have every reason to sit their regulars. At 5 1/2 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians, the second Wild Card seems like a virtual lock for them, barring disaster. This is still the most complete team they'll play, though, boasting one of the league's top-five offenses since the second half.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, gets a tough draw from here, getting four games with the lowly Mets before closing out with the best team in the NL, the Brewers, and the AL's top team, the Rays. Even with their respective races locked up, that's a massive roadblock ahead that should make it difficult for the Phillies to catch up to the Cubs, especially without Jesus Luzardo. San Diego, meanwhile, will also get the Marlins, but then faces the Dodgers and, in a series that could be very interesting, the Diamondbacks, who could still be fighting to force the Padres or Phillies out of a spot. Arizona might be eliminated before then, though, with three against the Yankees looming, followed by three in Colorado.

In all, the Cubs appear to have staved off the brief threat of elimination and are still sitting in a good spot to take the top Wild Card between their upcoming opponents and their direct competitors' remaining gauntlets. A great, still realistic outcome would be a 7-3 run to close out the year strong, but a 6-4 record would be perfectly acceptable. A 90-72 season isn't quite what fans would've hoped for given how well this team has played at times with the prospective MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, but it's still a solid outcome with the adversity they faced and should seal home-field advantage, at least through the first round.

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