Cubs' magic number after Brewers sweep paints terrifying NL Wild Card picture

After getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers to open the week, the Chicago Cubs will once again reach the end of a regular season with the realization that a sizable gap remains between the Brewers and Cubs. The Brewers now have a 10-game lead over the Cubs for first place in the National League Central, and remain the definition of success in the division.

For the Cubs, beyond the headache that has been the Brewers for the past several years, they now face an even scarier reality in the National League Wild Card race. The Cubs are off on Thursday, but now trail the Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5 games for the top Wild Card spot in the National League.

With each passing day, it looks more likely that the Cubs won't be hosting a Wild Card series at Wrigley Field this season. The more troubling reality is that the Cubs, after losing six of their last ten games, are now in jeopardy of being caught by one of the San Diego Padres or Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Padres currently hold the final spot in the Wild Card, trailing the Cubs by only 2.5 games. The Diamondbacks are a half-game behind them. Right now, instead of playing the Phillies, if the Cubs fall to the final Wild Card spot in the National League, they would face the Atlanta Braves to open the playoffs.

If there is a silver lining for the Cubs, it's that the odds are still in their favor. FanGraphs still gives the Cubs over a 96% chance of making the playoffs. That doesn't mean a September collapse, greater than the one they endured in 2023, won't happen, but the Cubs are still positioned to make the playoffs.

Cubs' magic number offers hope, but time is running out for them to right the ship

There's 15 games remaining in the regular season, and entering Thursday, the Cubs' magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 13. That would be at the start of the final series of the regular season for the Cubs, when they play the Boston Red Sox in Boston. The Red Sox currently are sitting comfortably as the second Wild Card team in the American League.

Of course, the hope is the Red Sox have their seeding finalized before that series against the Cubs. It's not ideal, but considering how things have gone for the Cubs over the past two weeks, they need any help available to them.

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