Cubs' magic number offers hope but NL Wild Card race is far from comfortably settled

After a deflating series against the Milwaukee Brewers last week, the Chicago Cubs returned to form over the weekend, taking two of three against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Entering the final two weeks of the regular season, it remains a safe assumption that the Cubs will make the playoffs.

FanGraphs gives the Cubs nearly a 99% chance of making the playoffs. All the talk about the Cubs rivaling the collapse they had in 2023 likely has been eliminated, and that's also evident by taking a look at their magic number.

Cubs' magic number is encouraging but there's no escaping tense NL Wild Card race

With 12 games remaining, the magic number is at 9. If the Cubs clinch a playoff spot before their final series of the season, that does offer Craig Counsell the chance the position to line up his rotation exactly how he sees fit for the National League Wild Card series. Though, what that may ignore is how tight the race is for the top Wild Card spot.

Entering play on Monday, the Cubs and Phillies are tied for the No. 4 seed. Considering the Cubs hold the tie-breaker, that means that the Wild Card series would be at Wrigley Field. As the Cubs proved last October, there is a multiplier in terms of hosting a playoff series at Wrigley Field. Similarly, playing three consecutive playoffs games in Philadelphia would be far from ideal.

That said, the Phillies are far from the only team the Cubs need to be concerned with over these next weeks. Only 1.5 games seperate the Cubs and Phillies from the San Diego Padres. Falling to the No. 6 would not only force the Cubs to be on the road, but face one of the Atlanta Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers. As of now, it would be the Braves, who trail the Dodgers by 3.5 games for having the second first-round bye in the National League.

Following their series against the Braves this week, the Cubs go on the road to play the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend, return to Wrigley Field for a series against the Miami Marlins next week, and close out the series on the road with a weekend series against the Red Sox in Boston.

Meanwhile, the Phillies start a six-game road trip on Tuesday, includes series against the Washington Nationals and New York Mets. They finish the season at home with consecutive series against the Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays.

The hope is the Cubs can keep ground with the Phillies this week before distancing themselves next week. Otherwise, they'll be on the road to start the playoffs.

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