Power ranking potential Cubs playoff opponents, from most to least afraid of

While the Chicago Cubs got within striking distance of the division for a split second, any hopes of winning the NL Central have since been dashed. In short order, the Milwaukee Brewers pulled away once again and, after a catastrophic loss on Tuesday night and follow-up effort on Wednesday, the division race is over. The Wild Card remains their only hope in making noise in the postseason, yet Craig Counsell's club's seeding is now more in flux than ever.

A recent hot streak from the Philadelphia Phillies combined with the Cubs' bullpen woes has seen them fall to the second Wild Card spot, a half-game back. Even with only 15 games remaining, this race is far from over, as the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks are right on their heels. The chances of Chicago falling out of contention altogether are slim, but whether they'll have home-field advantage and who they'll face is very much up in the air.

As of now, the likeliest outcome is a date with Kyle Schwarber and the gang, but with the tiebreaker over the Phillies, it's a toss-up whether Wrigley Field or Citizens Bank Park will host. Should they fall further, though, a date with the Braves, or potentially the Dodgers, is possible in the first round. It can't be entirely ruled out either that they'll be pulled into a game with the Diamondbacks or Padres if Philly slows down in the final stretch and one of them moves up. Those are all very different groups with unique strengths and weaknesses.

Let's take a look at their likely opponents in the Wild Card round and rank how dangerous each one is. Milwaukee is all but certain to get a bye, but if there were a real chance they lost that positioning, I'd put them in second place based primarily on their pitching staff, headlined by the presumptive Cy Young winner, Jacob Misiorowski.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Currently, the Dodgers are in position to get the second of two byes alongside the Brewers. Unlike Milwaukee, however, they're only four games ahead of the NL East-leading Braves and could find themselves staring down the barrel of a three-game series if they stumble again. The Cubs would have to continue falling to the final Wild Card as well to face them, but if that nightmare scenario happens, they could be in for a world of hurt.

As is always said, the Dodgers are built more for the postseason than the regular season. The Cubs have played Los Angeles well this year, going 4-2, but facing them in the playoffs is a different demon altogether. Shohei Ohtani isn't expected to pitch again this season, but in a shortened series, they'll have the luxury of throwing Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto back-to-back, with Blake Snell on deck and finally healthy if a game three is needed. That is a nightmare scenario before even addressing their offense, which ranks second in wRC+ (109), only to the Cubs (115).

Worse, they'll also have one of Justin Wrobleski and Tyler Glasnow in their back pocket as an extra bullpen weapon. Then, there's a wild card in the form of Kris Bubic, their under-the-radar trade deadline pickup, whom Dave Roberts has mentioned should be back in time for the postseason and who brings a very high ceiling despite his 4.11 ERA this year. Even with a middle-of-the-pack bullpen at a 3.96 ERA, they're built frighteningly well, with legitimate aces going all three games to make runs come at a premium. The Cubs simply can't match that depth.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

After the Dodgers, the Phillies might have the best rotation going into the postseason and thus would be the second greatest challenge for the Cubs. They did not follow in LA's footsteps and add any starting pitching, but they likely won't need it in October, with a lineup of Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, and Aaron Nola going for them. While the Northsiders got to Sanchez earlier in the year, he's otherwise been fantastic with a 2.79 ERA and 2.72 FIP. Luzardo, however, is almost as dangerous, becoming a reliable monster with a 2.87 ERA and 2.77 FIP himself, and recently twirling a nine-inning shutout with 12 strikeouts.

The Cubs might have a chance if they can get to the bullpen, which has been a weakness this year, but that's a big if, considering the bulk those pitchers provide. Where they do have an edge, however, is in offense. Philadelphia lacks much of a consistent threat this year outside of their two sluggers, Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and they are a fairly groundball-heavy group, with the ninth-highest rate. That should benefit Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, and David Peterson especially, but they are still capable of jumping the ball out of the yard.

This is simply not the Phillies team that the Cubs went 6-1 against early in the season when they were struggling under Rob Thomson. They're playing hot, and their buzzsaw of a rotation will put this offense to the test while Schwarber and Harper bring the thunder.

3. San Diego Padres

San Diego's late surge has made a rematch with the Cubs in the postseason all the more possible. Yet again, they may also be an early trap for Counsell's club thanks to their pitching. The bullpen is obviously frightening, as always, with the deadly foursome of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, and Yuki Matsui leading a group that makes the late innings a nightmare, but since the second half, their starting staff has been among baseball's best with a 3.41 ERA. Michael King's the clear ace with a 3.00 ERA, but the trade deadline gave them some upside with Casey Mize and Robbie Ray. Nick Pivetta also recently returned and looked sharp in his first limited outing since going on the shelf in April.

The sheer depth on offer, also including guys like Randy Vazquez and Walker Buehler, gives them a lot of options to mix and match with the bullpen in a short series, even if the starters have accrued the fifth-lowest fWAR in baseball this year. Their ability to shorten games could limit the advantage the Cubs will have with the bats, but the Padres offense shouldn't be slept on either. In the second half, they're up around Chicago with the third-best offense in baseball, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ty France leading the charge at a 164 wRC+ and 158 wRC+, respectively.

Craig Stammen's team is a bit of a wild card among the Wild Card hopefuls. Their offense is inconsistent, but when they're hot, they're scorching, and they have a deep enough pitching staff to make games scary for the Cubs if they don't have the lead late.

4. Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is a noted step down from their fellow expected division winners, but they still have reasons to be feared. There isn't nearly the rotation mismatch between them and the Cubs, as their hopes primarily live and die by Chris Sale. That's not a terrible thing — Sale is arguably the best pitcher not named Misiorowski this year with a 2.10 ERA, 2.26 FIP, and a ton of strikeouts — but it leaves the door open for the best offense in baseball to go to work. Bryce Elder going down with arthroscopic knee surgery means their options aren't great past their lefty ace, with AJ Smith-Shawver, Martin Perez, Grant Holmes, Tyler Mahle, and Reynaldo Lopez all expected to be ready.

None of those options should strike fear into the Cubs' hearts, but they may have to get to them to avoid facing a few bullpen monsters in the form of young Didier Fuentes (1.88 ERA as a reliever), Raisel Iglesias (2.72 ERA), and Dylan Lee (2.61 ERA), along with a returning Robert Suarez. Atlanta's offense, meanwhile, doesn't have an Ohtani or Schwarber, but brings more consistency despite having a similar 98 wRC+ to the Phillies in the second half. Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Michael Harris II are among the biggest threats, but they are going through a slight funk, with only four regular hitters on the team slashing above a 100 wRC+ since August.

While their resurgence from last year is impressive, Atlanta isn't as strong right now as they once looked, and the weaknesses are in spots that should play to the Cubs' advantages. In a three-game series, they lack the ability to shut games down in quite the same way as the other playoff teams whenever Sale isn't on the mound.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The softest opponent the Cubs could draw would likely be the Diamondbacks for a few reasons. Namely, their pitching staff lacks a lot of the bite of the other contenders in a three-game set. Eduardo Rodriguez is a tough ace to face at a 2.55 ERA and 3.75 FIP, and he recently gave the Northsiders fits, but past that, they have a more middle-of-the-pack rotation between a pretty solid Brandon Pfaadt, a down year for Merrill Kelly, a dreadful, hurt Zac Gallen, and two high-ceiling arms returning from injury in Corbin Burnes and Mike Soroka. Coming off Tommy John surgery, the former Cy Young winner Burnes is a particular wild card, only just making his first start of the year this week.

Combined with a bullpen that's similarly middling, with solid arms like Juan Marillo (2.05 ERA) and Brandyn Garcia (2.08 ERA), it adds up to a staff that hasn't wowed as some of the names would suggest on paper. The offense has been a bit sharper in the second half, ranking seventh among all teams with a 103 wRC+, carried by the offensive engine of Gabriel Moreno (137 wRC+). That said, for a group that still features Corbin Caroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and more, they're not blowing teams out that often, trailing only the Dodgers in one-run wins this year at 27.

The Diamondbacks have the appearance of a gritty team that's punching a bit above their weight, with their expected record looking more like 73-73. Come the postseason and the confines of a three-game series, though, those weaknesses may be exposed, especially against a team like the Cubs that wears out pitching. Don't let their frustrating recent series fool you; this is a matchup to hope for.

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