Cubs may not need to overthink their 2027 catching plans thanks to Miguel Amaya

In a position player group dominated by superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Chicago Cubs' steady catching tandem has flown a bit under the radar. Carson Kelly remains excellent behind the dish as one of the best ABS challenge users in the sport while still hitting .265/.350/.382 with a 109 wRC+, good for 14th among all backstops with 190 or more plate appearances. Yet, right behind him, Miguel Amaya has quietly continued to build on a promising, if injury-limited, 2025 campaign.

Although Kelly has the edge in playing time with 311 plate appearances across 88 games to Amaya's 194 over 64, they've been about as valuable overall at 1.4 fWAR and 1.2 WAR, respectively, and represent baseball's third-best catching tandem by wRC+ with a 108 mark. The young backstop has critically remained healthy and effective while also taking strides that make his future more exciting. In addition to slashing .242/.349/.370, he's cut his chase rate down to just 30% and upped his walk rate by nearly 6%.

In fact, Amaya has seen increases in all manner of valuable under-the-hood stats, including his barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity. Making such improvements to his approach at the plate in such infrequent playing time is nothing short of impressive and is why he ranks just one spot behind Kelly in offense among catchers. Counsell echoed as much to the media, saying, per The Athletic, "When you don’t play that much and play at the frequency Miggy’s playing, the offensive year he’s having, that’s a really good year." Defensively, though, he's also taken steps forward.

This marks the first season that Amaya's framing is positive by Statcast, and in just over 418 innings in the field, he's tied for the most defensive runs saved of his career with five. Overall, his defensive value at catcher ranks 16th in baseball among players with a minimum of 400 innings in the field. Most importantly, Cubs pitchers have been vocal about how comfortable he is to work with both in pre-game planning and game calling. At this point, he's put the tools together well enough that Kelly's potential departure as the primary backstop shouldn't be as concerning as once thought.

Miguel Amaya has earned the Cubs primary catching job for 2027

It's by no means a guarantee that Kelly leaves the Friendly Confines next year, but the possibility seems strong. Catchers, as always, hit lighter than other positions, so a backstop heading into his age-32 season, coming off a two-season stretch with a 112 wRC+ and a reputation as an excellent defender, is bound to be sneaky expensive in free agency. The Cubs are likely to focus their spending elsewhere.

Amaya has shown that the gap between him and Kelly is closing, though, and at just 27 years old with three years of control left, the Cubs will have him locked up throughout his prime. He could still have room to grow as he gets more regular playing time, too. Regardless, his skill set is valuable now, and he's shown the type of development and experience not just to take over the starting role, but to be a mentor to the next homegrown catcher, Owen Ayers.

By trading Moises Ballesteros at the deadline, the Cubs made quite the statement of confidence in Ayers. He's continued to soar through the minors this year at age 25, currently slashing .303/.410/.409 with a 116 wRC+ in 78 plate appearances at Triple-A without any meaningful change in his strikeout rate between levels. All the while, he rates out with a future value of 55 with the glove, demonstrating his ability to control the run game. His breakout campaign has put him in position to get his first cup of coffee in the majors as soon as this year with September call-ups, as Sahadev Sharma writes at The Athletic.

It'll help to have someone who is not just performing well, but has the pitching staff's trust to be there as a mentor for Ayers as his Cubs career begins. Amaya combines all of that and is the beneficiary of working with Kelly these past two years, not to mention a wealth of experience as a pro thanks to a lengthy minor league career beginning in rookie ball in 2016. This is a chance he's worked hard to earn. Whether or not Ayers starts 2027 with the team, though, it's time to see Amaya take the reins as the primary guy behind the plate.

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