Carson Kelly clue reveals one offseason decision the Cubs may already be thinking about

Carson Kelly, by way of a $7.5 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined, is set to join a long list of Chicago Cubs players in free agency next winter. Some of that group includes franchise staples who will be extension priorities in the coming months (Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki). Others (Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga) will likely be allowed to seek employment elsewhere without much pushback.

Kelly exists in a weird, liminal space amongst that crop. He's a soon-to-be 32-year-old catcher who is playing out just the second year of his Cubs tenure. There's not exactly a loyalty owed to him in the same way there is to someone like Happ, but Kelly is also posting the best numbers of his career on the North Side of Chicago. It'd behoove him to stick around if the money makes sense.

And it seems like it just might. When asked about Moises Ballesteros' standing within the catching program, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic had this to say: "Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya have also spent so much time and effort developing relationships with pitchers that the Cubs would not want to subtract an established catcher and disrupt those connections."

Sounds like the kind of guy you'd want to keep around, no?

To extend Carson Kelly, the Cubs will need to make a brave call on Moises Ballesteros

This situation closely mirrors the Cubs' catching dilemma from a decade ago. Back then, Kyle Schwarber emerged as a bat-first, must-start player who was far behind in his defensive development behind the plate. A torn ACL in 2016 sort of changed the equation, but the North Siders ultimately decided it was more important for Schwarber to focus on hitting, pairing Willson Contreras with a rotating crop of backstops (mostly Miguel Montero and Victor Caratini).

Are we on the verge of something similar right now? Mooney said Ballesteros "is simply not there yet" in regard to his glove, but we all know his bat is absolutely crucial to the offensive operation. If the Cubs extend Kelly, they could pair him and Amaya for years to come while letting Ballesteros stick at DH.

Where this gets extra complicated is in his positional value; catchers who can post a 118 wRC+ don't just grow on trees, and there are exceedingly few who can pair that kind of offensive output with Kelly's game-calling skills and defensive prowess. He won't win any Gold Gloves or Silver Sluggers, but at 3.4 fWAR since the start of the 2025 season, Kelly has been one of the 10-most valuable backstops in the sport since joining the Cubs.

He won't be a candidate for a super long-term deal now that he's in his thirties, but Kelly has clearly made his mark in Chicago. Rather than forcing Ballesteros to be something he's not, why not extend the veteran catcher who is peaking at the right time?

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