Can Cubs catcher Carson Kelly replicate his 2025 magic at the plate?

One of the biggest surprises of the 2025 Chicago Cubs season was the offensive contributions of catcher Carson Kelly. The 32-year-old backstop was brought in to be the veteran back-up to Miguel Amaya, and he ended up having a career season. In 111 games he slashed .249/.333/.428 with 17 home runs and a .761 OPS, while setting career-highs in RBI (48), wRC+ (115), and overall fWAR (2.6).

Kelly is on a two-year deal, with a third-year mutual option in 2028, so he will once again be a part of the Cubs in 2026. The big question: can we expect him to be a major threat at the plate again next year?

It would be somewhat surprising if he produced at that level. Kelly is a career .229/.312/.384 hitter with a 90 wRC+ and .696 OPS in 667 games. With that said, his bat has solid pop with 71 career homers and has three seasons (2019, 2021, 2025) with 13+ round trippers, .750+ OPS, and 100+ wRC+. So it's not like 2025 was his first productive season at the plate; he's capable of producing at a very solid level as a catcher. Career numbers will just suggest he probably won't replicate his 2025 success.

Steamer projections have Kelly hitting .236/.313/.394 with 12 homers, 37 RBI, a .707 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 84 games. The Marcels projection system on Baseball-Reference has him doing a little better, hitting .240/.316/.398 with 15 homers, 50 RBI (which would be a career-best), and .714 OPS.

Miguel Amaya's health will impact Carson Kelly's role moving forward

Steamer's projections are a balance of being closer to career numbers, while still bringing the type of pop he had last year. That feels like a very reasonable projection for Kelly. As mentioned before, he has shown on multiple occasions that he can hit double-digit homers. Obviously, it would be preferred if he hit closer to the Baseball-Reference numbers, and nothing says he can't; it would just be interesting to see him surpass that RBI total next year. They are closer to the 2025 numbers, but still not quite there in terms of slugging percentage and OPS.

In the end, none of those projections seem unreasonable or undesirable.

One big factor that could derail those hopes? The health of Amaya, who missed much of 2025 due to multiple injuries. The hope is Amaya can be healthy, so he and Kelly can share those duties behind the plate. Kelly playing the way he did in 2025 was huge with Amaya missing so much time, and the goal is for him not to have to carry that type of load in 2026.

If the crystal ball said Kelly would pair up with a healthy Amaya and hit around .235/.315/.390 with 12 homers, .705 OPS, and 40 RBI in 90 games, it would be very hard to complain about that. That is him slashing around career numbers while showcasing the impressive power he showed in 2025.