Casey Mize contract projections make a potential Cubs pursuit look like a massive mistake

Casey Mize was among the pitchers the Chicago Cubs were connected to at the trade deadline, but after adding Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, the Cubs watched as Mize was dealt to the San Diego Padres right as the deadline arrived. It would be fair to suggest the Cubs would have some level of interest in Mize this offseason, but one contract projection certainly would suggest otherwise.

It's going to be a curious market for free-agent starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal is obviously going to be the best starting pitcher available, but after that, there's a handful of veterans could be an ideal option but would have some red flags surrounding their profile.

Casey Mize's latest contract projections should scare Cubs away from a potential deal

That can be the problem with some contract prediction models, considering most just strictly look at a player's age and results for reference. It doesn't take injury history into account, and that can be where they steer in a wild direction. Along those lines, assessing Mize's market value, Spotrac places his projected contract at six years worth $115 million.

It would seem that Spotrac averaged out the recent contracts of his closest player comps, among which include Jameson Taillon and Ranger Suarez, while also taking into account Mize being on the younger end. From there, they factor in statistical comps, and consider the two years before the respective contracts were signed to determine how Mize would progress forward. The result, somehow, was the $115 million number for six years.

The reality is that since making his debut in 2020, Mize has only made 30 starts in a season once. More concerning, he's only surpassed 150 innings pitched in a season once. Splitting the 2026 season with the Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres, Mize made 26 starts, but his velocity started trending in the wrong direction shortly before the deadline and never quite recovered.

Mize's time with the Padres was also a disaster, considering he posted an ERA of 7.46 in his final 10 regular season starts and finished the year on the IL with an ankle sprain. That's not the finish to a season that would warrant Mize getting $100 million+ in free agency, especially in a deal that pays him for the next six years.

With the Cubs operating with a blank canvas this offseason in terms of constructing their pitching staff, Mize probably isn't near the top of their list of targets. He could be a worthwhile gamble on a short-term deal but nothing more than that.

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