1 alarming Casey Mize data point should give Cubs pause at the trade deadline

As rain continues to pound Chicagoland, we can only hope the Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees get their scheduled game in on Saturday night. In the meantime, there's just one thing to do: furiously refresh X as we wait for the first major domino to fall ahead of the looming MLB trade deadline.

Multiple reports have connected the Cubs to a Detroit Tigers pitcher on an expiring contract- no, not that one - but former first-round pick Casey Mize, who has looked sharp this season. Mize has made 16 starts, pitching to a 2.70 ERA and limiting opponents to a .223 xBA. Given Chicago's rotation needs, he's a logical target.

But Jed Hoyer needs to tread carefully with Mize because a troubling pattern has emerged in his recent starts - one the Cubs either ignored or wrongfully accepted last summer when they traded for Michael Soroka: a troubling decline in average fastball velocity.

Casey Mize recent average fastball velocity decline is a huge red flag

Mize has never been the epitome of health, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022 that cost him the entire following season, as well. He battled hamstring strains in both 2024 and 2025 and was hit earlier this year with a groin issue and adductor tightness. He's made more than 25 starts just twice in his career (2021, 2025) so the recent velo trends certainly can't be ignored.

If you'll recall, the Cubs balked at the asking prices at the top of the trade market last summer, falling back on Soroka as a backup plan - only to have him leave his very first start with the Cubs due to a right shoulder strain. He didn't return to the team until mid-September. Given the state of the pitching staff this time around, Hoyer can't afford to make the same mistake twice.

I'm not saying that Mize should not or cannot be a Cubs trade deadline target. But even with several key arms working their way back from injury in the coming weeks, they need the guys they acquire in the next few days to be key contributors - and it's at least worth asking whether or not they can count on the Tigers right-hander to fill that role for the rest of the 2026 season.

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