Much of the focus around the Chicago Cubs' trade deadline efforts has unsurprisingly been on the rotation. It's no secret that Jed Hoyer is aiming to land a legitimate arm that could be worthy of one of the front two spots of the starting staff, and he may be willing to trade about any young player not named Josiah Hartshorn to do it. Ideally, that pitcher is a controllable one, like Reid Detmers or Jose Soriano, but the team has played well enough that nothing has been ruled out of late. Not even a Tarik Skubal blockbuster.
However, as always, the front office will also look to add in the bullpen. At a glance, the Cubs' needs aren't quite as dire there, with all of Hunter Harvey, Daniel Palencia, Hoby Milner, and maybe even Shelby Miller poised for a return in time for October and both Justin Steele and Ben Brown expected to be able to contribute in shorter bursts once they're back with the team. They'll add to a group that currently has a thriving Jacob Webb, veteran Caleb Thielbar, and one solid breakout in Ryan Rolison, among others. What they lack, though, are strikeouts, true high-leverage arms, and certainty.
There's no guarantee that the players returning from injury will be in perfect form at all, especially for those like Steele and Harvey who have missed most of the season. This year has also given the Cubs no reason to expect that all of them will remain perfectly healthy the rest of the way. With no waiver deadline like in past years, August 3 is the last, best chance to add real impact to a relief group that, heading into Saturday, has a middle-of-the-pack 3.96 ERA, but a bottom-five FIP of 4.62 and a bottom-ten strikeout rate of 21.4%. Reportedly, they may look to some bigger names to get that edge.
Cubs signaling aggressive bullpen pursuits just before the trade deadline
Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote at length about the Cubs' desire to add another reliever at the deadline, with an emphasis on giving the roster insurance for further injuries. While Craig Counsell told the media that both he and Hoyer "love" strikeouts and would like more arms that can provide, the goal is primarily to get whatever consistent relievers they can. Nonetheless, the names at the top of their likely wish list would certainly add more swing-and-miss, including lefty Adrian Morejon from the Padres and righties Luke Weaver and Jeff Hoffman from the Mets and Blue Jays.
Cubs fans will recognize Morejon as arguably the scariest non-Mason Miller part of San Diego's monster bullpen the team faced in their Wild Card matchup last year. This year, he hasn't been quite as effective with a 3.14 ERA, but a 2.49 FIP and 27% strikeout rate show he's still elite. One look at his Statcast page shows a ton of red, but perhaps most enticing for this Cubs team is that, although his ability to miss barrels and induce chases is among the best, he sports a 99th-percentile groundball rate of 61.3%.
Morejon's price will be high, but unlike Miller, he wouldn't cost a king's ransom in prospects, since he's ticketed for free agency this offseason. Rental relievers, outside of extreme cases like Aroldis Chapman in 2016, aren't typically commanding eye-watering returns of multiple Top-100 prospects, so this should be doable. The question is whether San Diego will be selling him in the first place. For Weaver and Hoffman, however, the factors to consider are different.
Both relievers are under control through next year for $11 million, making the trade cost and AAV more expensive than Hoyer usually prefers. If Chicago breaks with tradition, though, both would also address the lack of strikeouts at the back end. Weaver, whom they were connected to in the offseason, has had a much better year so far with a career-best 1.88 ERA and a strong 2.87 FIP, and is coming off two great seasons with the Yankees. Hoffman has looked excellent under the hood with a 4.11 ERA but 2.54 FIP and a 34.8%(!) strikeout rate after a rough first go-around in Toronto.
Even showing interest in these types of arms is a bit of a departure for Hoyer. At last year's deadline, the answers came in the form of multiple mid-to-lower-market relievers with mixed results, including Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers. This despite big-name pieces like David Bednar, Jhoan Duran, and Louis Varland all moving, each of whom is continuing to find success with their new teams. It seems like a genuine acknowledgement, then, that this moment calls for more and that the Cubs' expected leverage pieces haven't worked out.
The front office has enough pieces between the minors and young major leaguers Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez to make one of these deals happen without prohibiting a starting pitching splash. The Cubs could even kill two birds with one stone and pair Weaver up with either Freddy Peralta or Clay Holmes for the rotation. Either way, this is a wider net than Hoyer has cast in years past that again points to an aggressive deadline approach in recognition of this roster's efforts.
