Cubs face painful Tarik Skubal free agency reality after Jeff Passan's latest intel

The Chicago Cubs were always a better fit in theory than practice for Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. The superstar southpaw would have immediately become the best starting pitcher in a maligned rotation, but the associated cost with acquiring him (both in terms of money and prospects) effectively eliminated the North Siders from the sweepstakes before they ever really began.

Now, take that analysis and apply it directly to Skubal's upcoming venture into free agency. According to Jeff Passan, the two-time Cy Young winner might command a contract that approaches $50 million per season: "The number will be huge. Bear in mind that Skubal turns 30 in November and never before has a pitcher age 30 or older received more than Stephen Strasburg's $245 million (on a seven-year deal) in free agency. Provided there is no salary cap, Skubal could get double that."

As optimistic as I (and I'm sure many of you) want to be... let's be honest with ourselves here. The Cubs aren't paying that kind of price for anyone, let alone a 30-year-old starting pitcher. It's time to move on from the dreams of seeing Skubal take home starts at the Friendly Confines.

Free agency shouldn't create a Tarik Skubal or bust mentality for Cubs

For those hoping that the impending lockout could limit Skubal's earning potential, don't get too excited about the possibility. Passan noted that the expectation around the league is that he'll sign before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on Dec. 1, locking in a contract that will easily blow away all previous records set by pitchers.

In other words, the Cubs are going to have get their pitching fix elsewhere, whether they prefer to act quickly or wait until they know the new rules governing the economics of the sport. The good news is that, unlike pretty much every other position on the market, there are some quality starting pitchers (in the non-Skubal division) that figure to available.

That list includes current summer fling Kevin Gausman, old enemy Freddy Peralta, former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, and veteran star Sonny Gray. There are even more talented pitchers in the tiers below, but it's clear that the Cubs can sign multiple rotation upgrades without dipping their toes in the Skubal waters.

Of course, there's an argument to be made that staying in the shallow end of the pool is exactly what has gotten the Cubs to this point. They had to completely overhaul their rotation via trades prior to the deadline because of injuries and ineffectiveness, and an early elimination in the playoffs will only raise more questions about the front office's ability to surround a great offense with a capable pitching staff.

Brining in Skubal would immediately assuage those concerns, but that doesn't sound like it's going to happen. Instead, the Cubs are likely to go hunting elsewhere, leaving us to simply marvel at the exorbitant contract Skubal is sure to sign.

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