3 Cubs prospects the team desperately need to break out in 2026

It's no secret that the Chicago Cubs' farm system has fallen in esteem in recent years. After appearing to be on strong footing with the talent they acquired both in the trades from the 2021 fire sale and their strategic drafting in the aftermath, they haven't quite been able to keep sustainably churning out talented young players. That's especially become a problem on the pitching side, particularly after the departure of Craig Breslow to the Red Sox. Promotions of players like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, and Matt Shaw, as well as the trade of Cam Smith to the Astros, have similarly contributed to most outlets re-ranking them among the bottom half of all minor league crops.

The Cubs need some breakouts. While they still have some quality players in the minors, like Jaxon Wiggins and Jefferson Rojas, they need more depth to create the sustainable future Jed Hoyer constantly preaches about. Moreover, they're likely about to see another big hit with Moises Ballesteros and Owen Caissie likely to have major roles on the 2026 team. They, ideally, need the talent to keep flowing in waves, with some prospects at all levels taking steps forward.

This coming year will be an opportunity to right the ship a bit. 2025's draft class added six new names to Chicago's top 30 prospects, headlined by promising Wake Forest outfielder Ethan Conrad. Some personnel changes have also been made, with Tyler Zombro getting a swift promotion to vice president of pitching after playing a big role in the front office's decisions on that side of the ball as a special assistant. Let's look at three players who are especially important to see major developments in as the Cubs look to build their farm back up.

3 critical prospects the Cubs need breakout seasons from in 2026

Ethan Conrad

As their first-round draft pick this season, who is coming back from a left labrum tear, Conrad will have all eyes on him to begin 2026. The Cubs took a bit of a risk nabbing him at 17 following the season-ending injury, but for good reason. He was hitting .372/.495/.744 with seven home runs in the first 21 games of the NCAA season before disaster struck. It's been their M.O. to take college-level hitters in the recent drafts and, under Dan Kantrovitz, they've kept striking gold of late, between the aforementioned Smith in 2024 and Shaw in 2023.

Conrad may be their biggest test of the process yet, though. His limited time at the highest levels of collegiate play and the significant injury mean they're betting big on his brief breakout at Wake Forest sticking. Still, he fits the exact type of hitter they love and believe they can get more value out of, one who both thrived in the Cape Cod League and who likely would've gone higher in the draft were it not for his shoulder. Keith Law and other prospect experts reflected as much in their respective rankings and write-ups.

If the pick works and the outfielder hits the ground running, it will look like a steal and show once more that the Cubs are capable of adding impact minor league talent even when drafting lower. With bat-to-ball skills, power, and speed that all rank above average, Conrad has the upside of a star. It may be a bit much to expect him to figure it out right away since he does have work to do to cut down on his chase rate and get back in the swing of things, but it would undoubtedly be a big win if he immediately showed why he initially seemed destined to be a top ten draftee.

Dominick Reid

As the Cubs' 2025 draft went on, they managed to pick up a few interesting high-upside pitchers to add to their organizational depth. The highest ranking of the bunch ended up being fourth-round pick Kaleb Wing, currently sitting at #13 in the organization. However, the earliest taken was their third-rounder, Dominick Reid, who checks in at #18. The right-hander was an interesting pick for Chicago, having only pitched 19 1/3 innings at Oklahoma State before transferring to Abilene Christian and racking up 88 2/3 innings and 115 strikeouts in the WAC.

With such a small, yet dominant sample size, Reid was more of a scouting play, taking an educated gamble that his results and pitches could translate to success throughout the minors. There's reason to think he could be a fast riser for the Cubs thanks to a dominant change-up that he primarily leaned on to put batters away, as well as a fastball that mostly sat around 92 to 94 MPH. His success would be a feather in the cap of the current pitching and scouting infrastructure and add some life to a system lacking promising pitchers. A meaningful breakout from him and/or Wing would give the Cubs something to look forward to beyond Wiggins and Brandon Birdsell.

Cristian Hernandez

Once believed to be the next Alex Rodriguez, Cristian Hernandez has faced an uphill battle in his minor league career so far. Since being signed by the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic in 2021 at just 17 years old, he simply hasn't exploded through the system so far, remaining at High A heading into his age-22 season. He appeared unready both for the Arizona Complex League (90 wRC+) and Low-A (81 wRC+) in 2022 and 2023, but something shifted in 2024. Repeating with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, he saw a vast improvement at the plate with a .269/.382/.406/135 wRC+ performance, complete with an over five-point swing in walk rate and a nearly five-point decrease in strikeout rate.

The newfound success spurred the Cubs to send Hernandez to High-A, where he's been ever since and has yet to hit his stride. In 2025, he saw a noticeable, if still underwhelming, improvement from his 89 wRC+ performance in 2024, slashing .252/.329/.365/99 wRC+. There's still work to be done, and it ideally needs to translate into results sooner rather than later. Heading into his age-22 season, the shortstop once called "Baby A-Rod" is now creeping into the average age range of his level.

Reaching his once-hyped potential now seems fully off the table. Behind Rojas, though, he's currently viewed as the next best shortstop prospect in the system by MLB Pipeline at #11 overall, with a lot of room to grow. Hernandez taking another leap forward after all this time would be an encouraging development for organizational depth and another reason to have patience when it comes to young, international players getting their first taste of affiliated baseball.