Cubs farm system falls off a cliff in the latest MLB Pipeline rankings

It was to be expected, but with their top pitching and position player prospects heading into the year, Cade Horton and Matt Shaw, graduating off the list, the Chicago Cubs' farm system did not fare well in the updated MLB Pipeline organizational rankings.

Chicago's farm system entered the season the same place they were this time last year, ranked eighth out of 30 - but dropped 11 spots and now sit #19 in the league. Here's what the update had to say about the Cubs.

The Cubs matched the White Sox for the biggest fall (11 places) since March, in part because their two best prospects at that time (Matt Shaw, Cade Horton) are now fixtures at Wrigley Field. The next step will be figuring out how to integrate Caissie, Ballesteros and former Top 100 Prospect Kevin Alcántara in the big league lineup before they stagnate in Triple-A. Right-hander Jaxon Wiggins and first baseman Jonathon Long have boosted their stock significantly, while outfielder Ethan Conrad was a sneaky-good get with the No. 17 overall pick in July.

It hits on perhaps the biggest question facing Jed Hoyer this winter: What is the plan for an incredibly top-heavy farm system? Even with Horton and Shaw in the bigs, all but one of the Cubs' top 10 prospects are at Double or Triple-A - with six of the 10 currently playing at Triple-A Iowa. Most lack clear paths to everyday playing time in Chicago, and the shine has already started to wane on at least two of them.

Cubs facing a do-or-die moment with a top-heavy farm system

The Cubs didn't move any of their top talent at the trade deadline, despite a glaring need at the top of the rotation, but not integrating the likes of Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, or Kevin Alcantara into the team's 2026 plans could be a perilous misstep by the recently-extended Hoyer. Of course, that assumes he doesn't flip them in trades this winter, in hopes of avoiding paying top-dollar for marquee free agent talent.

If their major drop wasn't enough bad news, let me pile some more on. The top-ranked farm system belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers - and the two prospects the Cubs traded to LA in the Michael Busch deal both get call-outs in the piece. But the biggest 'uh-oh' is the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that's won 12 straight and enters Wednesday night eight games up on Chicago in the divisional race, ranks fourth - a testament to the organization's talent development pipeline that could lead to sustained success for years to come.

The Cubs face another challenging offseason, regardless of how the next six weeks play out. Hoyer took the reins five years ago with the goal of building a strong farm system: now, he's tasked with making the fruits of that labor pay off at the big-league level.