Chicago Cubs: Projections for ideal bounceback seasons by key players

Despite seeing them win a division title in 2020, it was frustrating to see the Chicago Cubs core players all have down years. There is no 60-game season in 2021 that can allow for prolonged struggles from the core hitters and still make the postseason. Even with Kyle Schwarber gone we still have to look at Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras.

Cubs: Returning to a ‘normal season’ in 2021

Lets face it, 2020 was a weird season and a small sample size of games compared to a normal one. Returning to a more typical 162-game campaign alone might help certain players return to their normal playing levels. How much of the core’s 2020 struggles were attributed to the weird season, or were simply down years coincidentally all at the same time is not fully known. Regardless, what is done is done and it is time to move forward.

Looking for optimism in 2021, the resumes of these players give them the benefit of the doubt they bounce back to some capacity. Even if consistency has not always been there with these guys in their careers, they have typically finished their seasons with good or even great numbers. Right now it seems unlikely that they will all keep trending downwards.

So how can this core get back on track? Here is a look at what bounceback seasons will ideally look like for each of the core four hitters. Keep in mind that the ideal stat lines are just basic ranges of where they should ideally be.

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez saw his bat go ice-cold last season

Last year was no doubt the worst season for Javier Baez since his first stint as a rookie in 2014. In 59 games he hit a dismal .203/.238/.360 with eight home runs, 24 RBI, a .599 OPS, 31.9 percent strikeout rate, 57 wRC+ and was a 0.0 fWAR player. The reason he was not a negative WAR player was because of his defense.

Looking beyond the numbers and just sitting down and watching the games it seemed clear it was getting in his head. He was visibly frustrated with every swing-and-miss while clearly starting to press at the plate after a while. Now he will hit the reset button and move past it.

It is worth noting that Baez in 2019 was on track to have a similar season like had in 2018 before he got injured late in the year. He is 28 years old and still in the thick of his prime so as long as he is healthy and focused he should return to form.

Ideal numbers:

.278/.319/.520 – 28 HR, .838 OPS, 110 wRC+, 2.8 UBR

Chicago Cubs: The lowest point of Kris Bryant’s career came in 2020

It was really tough to watch Kris Bryant have trouble catching up to even low-90s fastballs in 2020. Whether it was mental or physical, it was a season to forget for the former National League MVP. He hit .206/.293/.351 with four home runs, 11 RBI, .644 OPS, 77 wRC+, 27.2 percent strikeout rate and was a 0.5 fWAR player. Every number on that slash line was a career-low, as was his OPS, wRC+, home run total and fWAR.

There is growing frustration among fans regarding the recent production of Bryant. While he has not been back to his 2016 NL MVP level, but he has still had some dang good seasons between 16′ and 2020. He slashed .282/.382/.521 with 31 homers, .903 OPS and 135 wRC+ in 147 games in 2019; he was an All-Star that year.

Bryant has dealt with nagging injuries over the past few seasons and it could have taken a toll on him in 2020. As of right now he is coming up on a contract year and that could be extra motivation for him to bounce back in 2021.

In the end a healthy Kris Bryant is normally a very good Kris Bryant. Expecting him to put up his typical numbers should not be unreasonable at this point in his career.

Ideal numbers:

.285/.380/.525 – 30 HR, .905 OPS, 138 wRC+, 10.5% BB rate

Chicago Cubs: Willson Contreras has room to improve in 2021

If there was one core member who was pretty close to his normal production it was Willson Contreras. The two-time All-Star catcher hit .243/.356/.407 with seven homers, .763 OPS, 110 wRC+ and was a 1.6 fWAR player. Pretty productive, but we know he is capable of better.

In three of his first four seasons, Contreras put up a wRC+ of 120+, as well as put up and OPS of .845+. The one year outside 2020 he did neither was 2018 when his power strangely just disappeared in the second half. In 2019 he bounced back from that and put up a career-high 24 home runs and 128 wRC+ in 105 games. He has faced slumps and injury issues before and has overcome them, it is reasonable to think he can return to his best form.

Ideal numbers:

.270/.355/.480  – 22 HR, .835 OPS, 120 wRC+, 9.0 BB%

Going into the 2021 season, the starting lineup on paper is still the team’s strongest point. With a pitching staff and bench being assembled by parts found in the Bargain Bin, most of the established top-tier talent is in the starting nine. These core players need to bounce back if they want any sort of chance because pitching and depth is probably not going to carry this team again.