Chicago Cubs top three reasons they win in 2020

The Chicago Cubs have been put through the wringer by the critics, models, projections, and sportswriters since before spring training. What are the top three signs the Cubs will defy those predictions?

Predictions can be fun for fans, especially if they reveal that your favorite team is predicted to be at the top of the standings. Chicago Cubs fans have not had a lot to cheer about when looking at these predictions and all the sports chat on television and online. Before spring training even began, the word around MLB was that the Cubs would finish fourth in the division and range somewhere around 80-83 wins for the 2020 season.

I’m not a big fan of these predictions, mainly because they start with data that is not entirely accurate. Most of these predictions come from machines that are fed stats, games, players and all sorts of data. Once the data has been loaded, an algorithm sorts the data and matches it against stats of all MLB teams and presto – a prediction is born.

Now let say that these models were run 30 days before spring training begins. What if a key player gets injured on opening day or before the spring games start?  A key player like Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant or shortstop Javier Baez would certainly skew the results to the negative. The same can be said if a new player was not accounted for in the computer model and joined the team later; the prediction would be skewed.

Most of the models don’t even take into consideration the manager and coaches. So the arrival of David Ross to manage the Cubs, which most agree is a significant addition and complete game-changer for the Cubs, wouldn’t even count in some of these prediction models.  So unless these computer models are taking into consideration all of the variances of a professional baseball team? The numbers are going to be off.

I don’t need to tell Chicago Cubs fans that if the numbers are off, and are not even accounting for the coaching and managing, so are the predictions.  So here are the top three reasons that the Cubs will win in 2020 and beat the model predictions that said they would not be any good – you be the judge.

Chicago Cubs: Lost bats have found their way home

The Chicago Cubs have come out of the gate swinging. In their first five games of preseason (this was written after the Cubs blanked the Kansas City Royals 8-0, proving my whole point!), there is an air of confidence by the Cubs when they step to the plate. In some of the most exciting offensive spring training games, fans are wondering if Sleeping Beauty has finally awoken.

It may be a bit early to bust out the champagne as the Cubs left 94 men on base over the past five games, but there is certainly a lot to like about the approach how the Cubs are attacking at the plate. In just their first five games of spring training, the Cubs have put up 57 hits, 42 RBIs and 44 runs. Of course, these games do enjoy an expanded roster to let starters rest a bit, and the Cubs minor-leaguers have made an impression as well.

While the Cubs hitting has been refreshing so early in the season, the poise at the plate to take pitches instead of swinging at everything is truly amazing. The Cubs walked 26 times in their first five games while only recording 49 strikeouts.

Walks from Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (1), first baseman Anthony Rizzo(2) and shortstop Javier Baez (2) showed a much more mature approach at the plate. Almost all of the Cubs seem like they see the ball much better, which is likely accounting for all those hits and walks. Whether it’s a different approach or just seeing the ball better, the Cubs are swinging.

Cubs catchers Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini both have home runs in five games, and outfielder Albert Almora Jr. has two home runs. Baez rounds out the Cubs with his own homer so far this spring. The Cubs bats have found their way to Mesa, AZ and spring training.

And there’s a lot to like so far.

Chicago Cubs:  Players are stepping up this season

When you look at contracts, turnover and how much longer this team will keep most of its core from the World Series, the Cubs pretty much have this year and next year to make a move toward another championship.

In 2022 there will be a massive turnover for the core Cub players that won the World Series in 2016. Fans should brace themselves now for the fact that the band is breaking up in 2022, and the Cubs are going to look like a Chicago Bulls roster. If Ross is still a manager at that time, it will be interesting to see how he manages a team made up of mostly new players, but I digress.

This significant turnover in 2022 means that now or never, certain Cubs player has got to step up and begin playing at a high-level. For the most part, those players have accepted that challenge this season.

This is a huge reason that I believe the Cubs are going to have a monster season around the corner.  What’s even better? Some of those players have already begun red-hot spring training and are marching toward the regular season. Here are the clues that the Cubs are going to be better than anyone suspects in 2020.

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The first clue was when Almora came out swinging and is now sitting with a crazy .714 batting average. Expect one of the most productive seasons from the young centerfielder as he comes into his own this season.

Almora was a question mark after a poor finish to last season but has simplified some of the components of his swing and is killing the ball once again. Almora already has an excellent reputation as an outfielder; now, it looks as though his swing has caught up with his defense.

Another clue that the Cubs will be better than anyone suspected this season is that outfielder Ian Happ and utility David Bote are tearing up spring training. Happ was sent down last season for a poor performance at the plate.

There isn’t much more room for learning on the job this season, and Happ will have to show his swing-skills if he hopes to find himself still in Wrigley Field next season. That’s why Ross has given Happ leadoff hitter duties on the Cubs alternate spring training team. While Happ has done pretty well with three hits and four RBIs this spring, Happ’s .375 batting average is a testament that he’s changed his game – even though the rest of Cubs B Team isn’t pulling ‘their’ weight.

Bote signed a five-year deal with the Cubs last April for $15 million through 2024. The Cubs have two options in Bote’s deal that could pay him up to $28.6 million over seven years if the utility player, like Almora and Happ, begins to deliver when he comes to the plate.  Bote knows precisely what is on the line, which is his future as a Chicago Cub and the chance to make professional career-money if he can become a reliable offensive weapon for the Cubs.

That’s why Bote showed up early to spring training; he knows that he must make that transition. Last season, Bote garnered a respectable .257 batting average but was reaping the rewards of an early spring training workout hosting a whopping .400 average.

When the starting stable of regulars does well, then the Cubs tend to show respectable results. When all of the other regular talent on the Cubs bench emerges, including the fired-up free agents like second baseman Jason Kipnis and outfielder Steven Souza Jr., then the Cubs are going to win big in 2020.