Chicago Cubs: 2020 is the most consequential season in a long time
Theo Epstein, Chicago Cubs (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
As the Chicago Cubs play their first spring training game, this season is likely hugely consequential for the team and the front office.
It has been building toward this point for a while. Chicago Cubs Theo Epstein pointed that out a couple of weeks ago when he said that they knew the financial limitations were coming as soon as the ink was dry on the 2017-2021 CBA after the 2016 World Series win.
So, here were are. We are facing the most consequential Cubs season since well, maybe forever. A confluence of circumstances has brought the Cubs to this point.
Chicago Cubs: Finances cramp team again
Not since before Theo Epstein have the Cubs faced a situation where the payroll strained against the moves that needed to be made. In 2010 the Cubs were loaded with big contracts for Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Ted Lilly. They had the third-highest payroll in baseball and had produced a meager 83-78 record in 2009.
Sound familiar? If so, it is because it mirrors where the Cubs stand ten years later. Second highest payroll in baseball? Check. Significant dollar long terms contacts? Check. Meager record the previous season? Check.
There are significant differences, though. Most significantly, the young core of the current team has won a World Series. There are pieces down on the farm, making their way to the Show. Finally, this front office has upgraded its use of technology and analytics, an area where the Jim Hendry front office was woefully inadequate.
Chicago Cubs: Who will stay and who will go?
The Cubs are just $4.717 million over the 2020 CBA threshold, and no doubt that will be trimmed even before the season starts. Plus, Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, and Jose Quintana are in the last year of their contracts. Lester has a ten million dollar buyout, but just those three at $43.5 million account for twenty percent of payroll.
To recap, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber are all free agents after 2021. Willson Contreras and Albert Almora follow after 2022. Then there’s David Bote, Ian Happ, and Robel Garcia, among others, who are all on the bubble this year. This season, perhaps more than the last or the next, will determine who the front office decides to keep, trade, or offer extensions to heading into 2021.
After 2020, the Cubs will have payroll flexibility, added resources from the Marquee Network, and 2021 is the last year of the CBA so that penalties will reset with the new CBA in 2022.
Chicago Cubs: What to expect and not expect
Do not look for a teardown. It doesn’t matter how bad the start of the season is nor how poorly they might be doing at the trade deadline, Theo and gang will not embark in a teardown. But if the season ends without a deep run in the playoffs, I certainly would count on a reload.
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I’d certainly look for a trade at the deadline. Who goes and who comes back depends on needs at the moment, but Theo has done this before in two shocking deals.
Also, the Cubs are sitting on a plethora of pitching with Quintana and Chatwood headed into their final seasons.
Depending on who is doing what the first half one or both of those two could be moved if any of Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay, Jharel Cotton, or Jeremy Jeffress are killing it.
Interestingly as well as my colleague Jacob Misener pointed out recently is the Yankees pitching going down even before the first pitch of spring training.
So, with the first game of spring training, the hopes are high and the anticipation is even higher, we enter the most consequential Cubs season that I can remember in a very long time. This is going to be very interesting.