Chicago Cubs have a dramatic run-scoring problem lately

Since mid-August, the Chicago Cubs offense has gone missing. It takes more than pitching and defense to win games – a lesson this team will learn soon.

Aug. 16 marked the beginning of a strange give-game streak where the Chicago Cubs scored just one run per game. Each individual tally came via a solo home run.

The Cubs’ offense temporarily broke out of that funk with a trade for Daniel Murphy. In the first 14 games after Murphy arrived the Cubs scored 8, 7, 3, 10, 9, 7, 2, 5, 1, 7, 8, 3, 6 and 6 runs, respectively. That’s an average of 5.8 runs per game. The Cubs won 12 of Murphy’s first 14 games in Chicago.

If you take out Murphy’s first 14 games with the Cubs, the Cubs have only been averaging 2.2 runs per game since Aug. 16. They have a record of 5-7 in those games.

I’ll admit that 12 games isn’t a gigantic sample size. And those dates are cherry picked a little bit. But it certainly feel like that the Cubs weren’t scoring much. Then, the Cubs got Murphy. The emotional lift from the Murphy trade has worn off. And now the Cubs are back to not scoring many runs.

Just consider the last couple of games. Saturday and Sunday, the Cubs only scored one run. On Friday they scored 3 runs on a home run from Ian Happ. That’s consecutive days the Cubs wouldn’t have scored at all if it wasn’t for one swing of the bat. Now that happens sometimes. That’s baseball.

Chicago Cubs: Banking on the bullpen is a huge gamble

But earlier in the season the Cubs were frequently coming back to win games that they trailed in early. Recently it feels that they are nearly incapable of coming back. This isn’t because the Cubs can’t hold it together and play good baseball to prevent the game from getting away. Its because they are unlikely to score enough runs to comeback from even a modest deficit.

“After it gets past four/five, it really falls off a cliff a bit,” Maddon said. “We really have to get the bottom part playing.”

Developments in the bullpen will make it even more difficult to win close games down the stretch.

Pedro Strop‘s injury means he will miss at least the rest of the regular season. Brandon Morrow still isn’t back and is just one minor setback from being ruled out for the season too. Carl Edwards Jr. is going though one of his stretches when he can’t find the strike zone. Steve Cishek seems to battling his intense workload as his earned run average continues to climb. After a stellar season, all of those innings and appearances seem to finally be catching up with the right-hander.