Chicago Cubs will deploy a five-man rotation moving forward
Some believed the Chicago Cubs would opt for a six-man rotation with Cole Hamels added to the mix. Instead, they’ll stick with a traditional five-man staff.
Although Joe Maddon did not make things immediately clear on Friday, he clarified one important aspect of his team heading into August. The Chicago Cubs will go with a typical five-man starting rotation over the final two months.
As to who’s included in that rotation, at least as of Saturday morning, is anybody’s guess.
There are three ‘shoo-ins’, if you will. Jon Lester, who has anchored the staff all season, along with Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana – both of whom have struggled with consistency. In a hypothetical postseason series, you’d think these three guys all get the ball.
When the Cubs went out and added Cole Hamels, the futures of Mike Montgomery and Tyler Chatwood got a lot murkier. You assume Hamels takes one of the remaining two spots in the rotation given his experience and make-up.
But what’s the better decision for the final spot? The erratic, but high-upside Chatwood? Or do you go with Montgomery, who helped stabilize the rotation in wake of the injury to Yu Darvish.
Chicago Cubs: 39 million reasons to stick with Chatwood
Personally, I was a huge fan of what the metrics suggested could lay in store for Tyler Chatwood when the Cubs signed him this winter. Chicago kicked off the offseason pitching market, inking the right-hander to a three-year, $39 million deal.
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But, to say things haven’t gone as planned would be a drastic understatement. He leads all of baseball with 85 walks in just 94 innings of work. (That works out to an 8.1 BB/9 mark if you’re doing the math at home).
The last time a Cubs hurler walked 100 batters in a single season? You have to go all the way back to 2007, when Carlos Zambrano issued 101 free passes in 216 1/3 innings. If you think that’s bad, just know it equates to a 4.2 BB/9 clip – just less than half of what Chatwood has done.
Giving his team a chance to win
For whatever reason, it seems like the offense comes ready to work when Chatwood pitches. Despite his 5.57 FIP and 1.777 WHIP, the Cubs are 11-8 in his starts. In fact, they’ve won each of his last five outings – despite his walking 22 batters in 25 1/3 innings.
During that stretch, the Chicago bats averaged greater than eight runs per game. So, while you might say he’s keeping the team in ballgames, I’d counter with the fact the offense has bailed him out pretty much every five days for more than a month.
Chicago Cubs: He got his shot – and now, might lose it
Earlier this season, Mike Montgomery made his desire to start perfectly clear. When Yu Darvish hit the shelf with an arm injury, he got his shot – and has, by and large, made the most of it.
In 11 starts this year, the southpaw put up a 3.50 ERA and 1.297 WHIP. Those numbers clearly outshine his work as a reliever, where he owns a 5.33 ERA and 1.461 WHIP in 19 appearances spanning 25 1/3 innings. From that sense, keeping him in the rotation over Chatwood makes a ton of sense.
But when you take into account the woeful performance of the Cubs’ lone ‘long’ lefty, Brian Duensing (7.18 ERA, .084 K/BB ratio in 41 appearances), the idea of moving Monty back to the pen looks awfully appealing.
Another factor that seems to be weighing on Theo Epstein? Montgomery’s workload. Last year, he tossed a career-high 130 2/3 innings. He’s already accumulated 87 frames this year – with a full two months left in the season.
“We’re one injury away from being in a really tough spot,” he said. “Some of the injuries we’ve had, some of the struggles we’ve had in certain areas and Monty’s innings becoming an issue as you go deeper and deeper in the season, we felt it would be irresponsible not to add one starting pitcher. We knew that was something we were going to do in some form or another.”
So do the Cubs try and save Montgomery for October and put him back in a type of swing role?
Chicago Cubs: For now, it’s Chatwood or bust
Good lord, I never thought I’d write those words. But here we are.
Mike Montgomery hasn’t pitched as well this year out of the bullpen. But with Duensing in free fall, Chicago desperately needs left-handed stability in the bullpen aside from Justin Wilson. Shifting him back into that role, while still giving him spot starts down the stretch helps preserve not only him, but other arms in the bullpen.
As for Chatwood, you stick with him. It won’t be easy, but you have to think he figures it out. At least, you hope he does given he’s signed for the next two years, as well. When/if Darvish returns, maybe he heads to the pen, as well. That’s an entirely different issue altogether.
It won’t be easy to watch. But the right move, for both guys involved, is for Tyler Chatwood to keep his spot in the rotation and Mike Montgomery to return to the pen.