Chicago Cubs Series Preview: Youth, inexperience big hurdles for Miami Marlins

Heading into the series: Miami Marlins

Record: 0-0, T-1st in National League East

Record (Last 10): 0-0

Team ERA: 0.00

Team OBP: .000

Team HR: 0

Team Leader (WAR): N/A

Brinson headlines the new Marlins’ core

Miami netted one of the game’s best prospects in Lewis Brinson when they dealt Yelich to Milwaukee. With a clear path to the bigs, the young outfielder could lead off when Miami and the Cubs open the season on Thursday.

MLB.com broke down Miami’s likely Opening Day lineup in a post covering the team’s late spring injuries. Here’s what they came up with:

Projected Opening Day lineup

1. Lewis Brinson, CF
2. Derek Dietrich, LF
3. Starlin Castro, 2B
4. Justin Bour, 1B
5. Brian Anderson, 3B
6. Tomas Telis, C
7. Cameron Maybin, RF
8. Miguel Rojas, SS
9. Jose Urena, RHP

For Cubs fans, they’ll remember Brinson from his brief stint in Milwaukee last season. He slashed a disappointing .106/.236/.277 in a limited 21 game sample size. But, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, he enters the season as the game’s 18th overall prospect.

Starlin Castro could have a real shot at 100 RBI this year with a strong showing in the middle of the Marlins batting order. Pitchers won’t work around him too much given Justin Bour is sitting right behind him in the lineup. Once Miami gets some added protection in there in the form of the injured Martin Prado and J.T. Realmuto, the lineup gets a lot deeper.

Cubs have a clear edge when it comes to pitching

Game 1: Thursday, March 29 – 11:40 a.m. CT | Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00) v Jose Urena (0-0, 0.00)

Even in a loaded Cubs rotation, veteran Jon Lester takes the ball for Opening Day. Last year was a bit of a rough-and-tumble campaign for the lefty, who pitched to a 4.33 ERA, 4.10 FIP and 1.323 WHIP. This spring, though, Lester got off to a strong start – finishing the spring with a 2.81 ERA in four outings.

In his career at Marlins Park, Lester has made three starts – allowing 18 hits and 11 runs in 19 innings of work. His last outing there, however, was a seven-inning start where he allowed just three earned – so there’s cause for hope.

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• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

Opposite Lester, young right-hander Jose Urena starts for the Marlins. While his overall numbers were solid in 2017 in what many tabbed a ‘breakout’ campaign, his metrics are a cause for concern. A 5.20 FIP and 1.77 strikeout-to-walk ratio are hardly confidence-inspiring.

Game 2: Friday, March 30 – 6:10 p.m. CT | Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 0.00) v Caleb Smith (0-0, 0.00)

Kyle Hendricks starts 2018 looking to take that final step to ‘ace’ status. He shocked the baseball world with a Top 3 Cy Young finish two years ago, but needs to show he’s the real deal after an injury-plagued 2017.

The soft-tossing righty has dominated the Marlins in his career, with a 1.32 ERA in four outings. He certainly won’t be hurt in his bid for his first win of the season by the fact his counterpart is a largely unproven commodity.

Caleb Smith has a whopping two career big league starts under his belt – and they didn’t go well. Brought up primarily as a reliever, he failed to pitch out of the fourth in both of his outing as a member of the Yankees in 2017. This spring, he struggled with control and looks – at best – to be a questionable member of the Miami rotation.

Game 3: Saturday, March 31 – 6:10 p.m. CT – Yu Darvish (0-0, 0.00) v Odrisamer Despaigne (0-0, 0.00)

The much-awaited regular season debut of Yu Darvish comes in Saturday’s matchup against Miami. The right-hander capped off the Cubs’ impressive offseason, immediately boosting the rotation. Now, he hopes to finish a job he came so close to finishing in 2017 – winning a World Series.

Darvish employed an array of delivery tweaks this spring, showcasing his near-flawless balance on the mound. It’ll certainly be interesting to see what he brings to his official Cubs debut. Another interesting note – this will be the righty’s first career start at Marlins Park.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

Despaigne, meanwhile, was a jack-of-all-trades for Miami in 2017. He started eight games, finished another five and made some middle-relief appearances, as well. Control issues (1.29 K/BB ratio last season) will be something to keep an eye on. But that can be said for pretty much every one of the Marlin hurlers this weekend.

Game 4: Sunday, April 1 – 12:10 p.m. CT | Jose Quintana (0-0, 0.00) v Dillon Peters (0-0, 0.00)

Even typing Quintana’s name into the fourth game of the series-opening series felt wrong. That’s just how deep this Cubs’ rotation is, though. Three of their five starters pitching in Opening Day starts just last season.

A nice problem to have, to be sure.

After coming over mid-season last year, Quintana pitched well for Chicago down the stretch. Now that he’s settled in on the North Side, people expect big things for a guy who has never seemed to quite hit his full potential.

As for Miami, lefty Dillon Peters, coming off a seven-strikeout, 4 2/3 inning performance in his final spring outing, gets the nod. Command, again, is the make-or-break for this young pitcher – something manager Don Mattingly pointed out to MLB.com.

“The fact that he’s throwing strikes and getting his curveball over,” Mattingly said. “He had the same type of outing in the Minor Leagues. In his last time out, he didn’t walk anybody. So, I think he’s pretty confident that he’s kind of back on top of the command thing.”

Pretty clearly, the Cubs hold a major advantage when it comes to pitching. And that’s without even starting to get into their loaded lineup.

Heading into the series: Chicago Cubs

Record: 0-0, T-1st in National League Central

Record (Last 10): 0-0

Team ERA: 0.00

Team OBP: .000

Team HR: 0

Team Leader (WAR): N/A

Schwarber, Happ look to be difference-makers in 2018

At this point, you pretty much know you’re going to get MVP-level performances from Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. But they alone can’t carry the Cubs to a second World Series title in three seasons. For that to happen, other guys need to step up.

That starts with the presumed leadoff hitter Ian Happ. Heading into his first full big league campaign, the switch-hitting outfielder absolutely raked this spring – to the tune of a 1.211 OPS. This ultimately displaced Albert Almora and landed him the leadoff gig. After Dexter Fowler left, the team struggled to find any type of spark atop the lineup – so hopefully Happ fills that void.

Flanking him in the outfield on one side – Kyle Schwarber. He also tore up Cactus League pitching this spring after his dramatic offseason transformation. Now, he needs it to translate to the Show in 2018. If he becomes more of a true hitter instead of a strikeout-homer slugger, as he was in the past, this lineup gets dangerously deep in a hurry.

Projected Opening Day lineup

1. Ian Happ, CF
2. Kris Bryant, 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Willson Contreras, C
5. Kyle Schwarber, LF
6. Addison Russell, SS
7. Jason Heyward, RF
8. Javier Baez, SS
9. Jon Lester, P

Heh. As if it weren’t already dangerously deep…

Series Prediction: Cubs sweep Miami – get off to hot start

Remember when the Chicago Cubs absolutely tore out of the gates two years ago? I anticipate something very similar in 2018.

Simply put, even without comparing the lineups and taking Miami’s injury woes into account, the pitching imbalance is just too much to overlook. When Jose Quintana starts the series finale of a four-game set, that tells you just about all you need to know.

Next: Looking into the crystal ball - our predictions for 2018

The Cubs should – and likely – will capitalize on a very young Marlins roster that lacks any real impact talent or fan support at home. Look for Joe Maddon‘s club to jump on these starters early and often – punishing any mistakes in the zone.