Chicago Cubs Prediction: Tyler Chatwood will outperform Alex Cobb in 2018

The last major starting pitcher free agent, Alex Cobb, finally has a home. The Chicago Cubs were smart to go with Tyler Chatwood instead of the right-hander.

Remember last fall when Alex Cobb to the Chicago Cubs seemed about as much of a lock as humanly possible? Seriously, the odds seemed better than those that Tom Tunney would start drama with the Cubs this winter. Those are some favorable odds for those at home keeping score.

Instead, Cobb inked a four-year, $57 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles – ending months of speculation as to where he’d land. The Cubs, meanwhile, replaced Jake Arrieta and John Lackey with Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood. The latter of whom marked the team’s first major signing of the offseason.

Really, at that point, we should’ve guessed things weren’t lining up with Cobb. But, at that point, the Cubs sat one starter short of a five-man staff, so adding Chatwood seemed more like a ‘we need to replace Lackey’ move instead of a ‘we want to win the World Series’ one.

But with time, more and more people are excited about what the former Rockies right-hander brings to the table. And, based on how he’s pitched this spring, it’s with good reason.

Chicago Cubs: Tyler Chatwood has it all working right now

On the spring, Chatwood carries a 2.81 ERA over his five Cactus League outings. You might think that would lead the Cubs – but no member of the Cubs’ projected rotation has an ERA north of 3.00. In other words, Chatwood has met the challenge of his rotation mates and has matched them, start for start.

In 16 innings, opponents managed just 11 knocks against him – while striking out 18 times. Batting just .204, they’ve barely managed any substantive damage when he’s on the mound. For a guy who seemed to be a question-mark type signing at first glance, this is exciting stuff.

Now, obviously, spring performances do not always equate to regular season success. On this team, Chicago has guys like Ryan Court and David Bote raking at the dish. It’s unlikely either see any real playing time with the big league team this year – despite that fact.

But coming off a 15-loss season with the Rockies, this spring does nothing but build confidence in Chatwood – whose elite spin rate and above-average stuff could propel him into the surprise of the season on the North Side.

Chicago Cubs: Is Cobb a bullet dodged?

It’s hard to sum up my thoughts on Alex Cobb in any type of succinct fashion.

When the winter began, MLBTR projected a six-year, $160 million deal for Yu Darvish (from the Cubs). I didn’t believe they’d go that high for the right-hander and, thus, moved on to Alex Cobb. Jake Arrieta, I felt, would fetch a deal close to $100 million, as well. Based on his downward trending numbers, it was time to move on in that regard.

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Cobb, meanwhile, spent his entire career in the American League East. Last season, he put up a 3.66 ERA in 29 starts spanning 179 1/3 innings of work. But as the offseason progressed, I began to ask myself what the Cubs could do to punch a fourth-straight postseason ticket. He wasn’t the answer. In my mind, Cobb represented a Chatwood-like option – not a significant front-end addition.

Looking at Baseball Reference projections, I might not be that far off the mark, either.

• Cobb: 4.20 ERA, 152 IP, 1.296 WHIP, 2.67 K/BB
• Chatwood:  4.38 ERA, 144 IP, 1.403 WHIP, 1.79 K/BB

Based on his spring performance, I feel much better about Chatwood than these predictions do. Still, if you’re turning in approximately the same numbers of innings and a roughly-comparable ERA for me – I’ll take three years and $39 million over four and $57 million any day of the week.

Oh, and don’t forget. Those savings made the eventual Darvish signing possible at six years, $126 million ($21 million AAV) – also keeping the Cubs under the luxury tax threshold.