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Chicago Cubs Prediction: Tyler Chatwood will outperform Alex Cobb in 2018

(Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
(Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images) /
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Chicago Cubs
(Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Is Cobb a bullet dodged?

It’s hard to sum up my thoughts on Alex Cobb in any type of succinct fashion.

When the winter began, MLBTR projected a six-year, $160 million deal for Yu Darvish (from the Cubs). I didn’t believe they’d go that high for the right-hander and, thus, moved on to Alex Cobb. Jake Arrieta, I felt, would fetch a deal close to $100 million, as well. Based on his downward trending numbers, it was time to move on in that regard.

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Cobb, meanwhile, spent his entire career in the American League East. Last season, he put up a 3.66 ERA in 29 starts spanning 179 1/3 innings of work. But as the offseason progressed, I began to ask myself what the Cubs could do to punch a fourth-straight postseason ticket. He wasn’t the answer. In my mind, Cobb represented a Chatwood-like option – not a significant front-end addition.

Looking at Baseball Reference projections, I might not be that far off the mark, either.

  • Cobb: 4.20 ERA, 152 IP, 1.296 WHIP, 2.67 K/BB
  • Chatwood:  4.38 ERA, 144 IP, 1.403 WHIP, 1.79 K/BB

Based on his spring performance, I feel much better about Chatwood than these predictions do. Still, if you’re turning in approximately the same numbers of innings and a roughly-comparable ERA for me – I’ll take three years and $39 million over four and $57 million any day of the week.

Oh, and don’t forget. Those savings made the eventual Darvish signing possible at six years, $126 million ($21 million AAV) – also keeping the Cubs under the luxury tax threshold.