Chicago Cubs: Is Kris Bryant “struggling” this season?

Chicago Cubs’ 3B Kris Bryant’s stats show that he’s not having the monster season he did last year. However, like everything, there’s another side to the story.

Recently I’ve seen many local and national baseball writers/pundits talk about how the Chicago Cubs‘ Kris Bryant is having a down year. Most center around his poor performance with runners in scoring position (only 20 hits in 113 PAs this season).

While KB’s struggles in high leverage situations may be the focal point of the criticism, other issues arise. With only 56 RBI and 23 home runs, the reigning MVP is unlikely to finish with another one this year. Not that he has to, but at face value those numbers are disappointing.

Face value: a term that sabermetric lovers like myself abhor. Sure, you can gauge something to a degree by looking at it at the surface. But until you dig deeper you’ll never know the real story. The real story to Bryant’s 2017: it’s not as “bad” as it looks.

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First of all, those RBI totals. Last year Bryant had 86 RBIs on August 23 (the date of this writing). That’s THIRTY less, and while it looks bad, it’s easily explainable.

Batting position matters

Last year KB played 62 games batting third in the order, including most of the 1st half. Before he switched to batting second full time on July 4th, he had accrued 61 RBI – more than what he has this season. In 83 games batting second, he had 45 RBI.

In his last 83 games this season batting second, Bryant has 41 RBI or four less than last season. What this all boils down to is that batting second in the lineup hinders opportunities for collecting RBIs, since the men on base are usually the leadoff men plus the lower half of the lineup (and pitchers). Most of these hitters aren’t known for high on base percentages, so the odds are stacked against Bryant to get runners across home plate.

When Bryant was hitting second last year, he was usually hitting behind Dexter Fowler. Fowler’s OBP was strong all year and was .387 after Bryant switched to No. 2 in the order full time. This year, Bryant hasn’t been so lucky.

The leadoff man has a putrid .318 OBP this season, mostly due to the failed Kyle Schwarber experiment. What’s crazy is that Bryant STILL has driven in around the same runs as last year in the two hole.

The bottom line is this: even with the circumstances severely against him this season, Bryant’s still been close to the same run producer as he was last year. Common sense tells us that if Bryant were batting third or fourth, his RBI total would be higher than what it is now. Besides, his rising walk totals are the main reason he’s hitting second anyway.

Still MVP-like

Now that the RBIs are out of the way, let’s look at other numbers. When comparing the two seasons, it’s important to look at other sides the big ones.

Bryant is still one of the top offensive players in the game in numerous categories. He’s 8th in BB%,  9th in OBP, 10th in wRC, 12th in WAR (according to Fangraphs) 14th in wOBA,16th in wRC+ and 18th in OPS. What does all that mean? He’s still really good – MVP-like if I dare say so myself.

Yes, Bryant has struggled in high leverage situations. He’s ranked last in Fangraphs’ clutch stat, which is confusing but not good nonetheless. He does have work to do in that department, but taking into account those struggles he’s still performing at a very high level.

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Will he win the award again? No, other NL players are more deserving than Bryant. However he’s still one of the best players in baseball and a lack of counting stats after a monster season is the reason for his supposed “down year.”

I don’t know about y’all but if this is what a Kris Bryant down year looks like, sign me up.