Chicago Cubs: Evaluating the Chris Archer-Eloy Jimenez rumors

One of the Chicago Cubs’ former pitching prospects, Chris Archer, could very well be a long-term answer to the team’s starting pitching woes.

Coming off a season in which the starting rotation pitched at historically well levels en route to a championship, things looked promising. But, approaching the trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs desperately need help to shore up the staff.

Jake Arrieta and John Lackey seem to be as good as gone come season’s end. In the meantime, 80 percent of the Cubs’ starting rotation has underperformed. So, whether you look at the short or long-term, this team must make an impact move in the next five weeks.

Last winter, the crosstown White Sox reportedly shopped Jose Quintana, but fell short of making a deal. Of course, the club essentially ruled out trading with the Cubs, but their southpaw represents what the team lacks: a controllable, quality young arm.

On Monday, Jeff Passan linked the Cubs to Joe Maddon‘s former club, the Tampa Bay Rays in a head-turning rumor.

#Cubs have had talks w/ Rays in past regarding Chris Archer. He’s a logical fit, but Cubs would have to part w/ Eloy Jimenez.

So just how bad do you want to fix the starting rotation? Enough to trade another MLB.com Top 10 prospect? Because that’s what it will take.

What’s a realistic asking price?

If the Rays’ asking price starts with Eloy Jimenez, is this even a discussion worth having?

Chicago Cubs

Initially, I balked right away at the idea. But Archer represents a substantive answer to Chicago’s rotation shortage. And not just this season, but for several years to come (free agency doesn’t factor in till 2019). His youth and history of making high number of starts consistently certainly make him a promising look.

Even in his 19-loss 2016 season, Archer’s earned run average barely broke 4.00. His 3.41 FIP over nearly 900 big-league regular season innings tells me what kind of pitcher he is: consistent.

Looking ahead to 2018, the Cubs’ rotation is shaky, to say the least. Kyle Hendricks, who has missed time with tendonitis already this year, is penciled in alongside Jon Lester. Past that, options include Eddie Butler and Mike Montgomery. Not exactly an awe-inspiring group.

But if you factor in Archer and assume the Cubs add another arm via free agency, the staff looks much more potent. It all comes down to how much you believe in Jimenez and his abilities. Is he the next big thing in Major League Baseball or just a second coming of Jorge Soler?

Remember the Matt Garza days?

Inconsistent, with the ability to dominate. That’s a pretty common description used back in the day for Matt Garza. And, more than a handful of times, it’s been used with Archer, as well.

Both spent time with the Rays – to mixed results. But is a comparison truly warranted?

As you can see, Archer outperformed Garza in both earned run average, strikeout-to-walk ratio and fielding independent pitching. But the two are eerily similar in terms of long-balls allowed. I think one of the biggest issues that plagues Garza is his temperament. Archer, meanwhile, seems to be a much softer competitor. That’s not to say it’s a bad thing, but his emotions don’t rule him like they do the former.

Over their first five seasons, both Garza and Archer were largely league-average pitchers. So why do fans feel the need to unload a blue-chip prospect like Jimenez in a deal to add Archer? Because he comes with team control – something that doesn’t come cheap in today’s game. The price for young, controllable arms has only risen since 2006, when Garza broke onto the scene.

A team’s best prospect for a league-average arm? Thanks, but no thanks.

Slugger on a mission in the Cubs’ system

Still just in his age-20 season, the future of Eloy Jimenez remains unclear. On one hand, he may go on to be the latest position player fixture in the Cubs’ big-league lineup. On the other, he may fizzle out and wind up being a bust – even though those are rare under this front office regime.

There is no disputing his tools, though. During this week’s Home Run Derby, the outfielder blasted a ball off the light tower in left-center field, setting the Internet ablaze with wonder.

On the year, he owns a .278/.381/.546 slash-line with Myrtle Beach. His .927 OPS, spread over the course of an entire season, would represent a career-best for the youngster. Entering this year as baseball’s #14 prospect according to Baseball America, he remains one of the team’s last top-tier prospects.

There’s no telling what Jimenez will become. But it’s hard to rationalize dealing a prospect of his caliber for a guy who’s largely been a middle-of-the-road contributor on an up-and-down team in his career.

Cubs’ fans want to win worse than ever before. They’ve gotten a taste of winning and they aren’t satisfied – not even close. But now is not the time to pillage the system for an acceptable piece – it’s the time to win a deal and get the right one.