Chicago Cubs: Evaluating the Chris Archer-Eloy Jimenez rumors

High ceiling, inconsistent results

Taken in the fifth round of the 2006 draft by the Cleveland Indians, Archer failed to separate himself as a pitcher during his minor league career.

In 2008, Cleveland dealt Archer, John Gaub and Jeff Stevens in the Mark DeRosa trade. With the Cubs’ High-A and Double-A affiliates in 2010, the right-hander was absolutely dominant, going 15-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 27 starts.

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But that joy to Cubs’ fans was short-lived. Chicago sent Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer in the deal that brought Matt Garza, Fernando Perez and Zac Rosscup to North Side.

Archer made his big-league debut in 2012 with the Rays. In his first start, he allowed three earned over six innings in a loss to Washington. The rest of the campaign was largely forgettable as he pitched to a 4.60 ERA and 1-3 record.

Over the next two years, the right-hander pitched to a low-3.00 ERA, making 55 starts for the Rays. In 2015, however, he broke out, earning the first All-Star selection of his big-league career.

In the first half, Archer posted a 2.74 ERA and 4.90 SO/BB ratio, while averaging nearly 11 strikeouts per nine. He went on to set a career-high with a dozen wins, leading the league with 34 starts.

Struggles or are we looking at the wrong numbers?

Over the last year-plus, though, the Tampa Bay ace hasn’t posted the same numbers. He lost an American League-worst 19 games in 2016, but his FIP indicated better performance at 3.81. The long-ball plagued him (1.3 per nine) and he entered 2017 looking for a bounce back campaign.

Taking the ball consistently, Archer is tied for the league lead with 15 starts already in 2017, averaging a career-best 11.2 strikeouts per nine. His HR/9 dropped back in-line with his career average and he represents one of the higher upside options on the market this summer.

What’s a realistic asking price?

If the Rays’ asking price starts with Eloy Jimenez, is this even a discussion worth having?

Chicago Cubs

Initially, I balked right away at the idea. But Archer represents a substantive answer to Chicago’s rotation shortage. And not just this season, but for several years to come (free agency doesn’t factor in till 2019). His youth and history of making high number of starts consistently certainly make him a promising look.

Even in his 19-loss 2016 season, Archer’s earned run average barely broke 4.00. His 3.41 FIP over nearly 900 big-league regular season innings tells me what kind of pitcher he is: consistent.

Looking ahead to 2018, the Cubs’ rotation is shaky, to say the least. Kyle Hendricks, who has missed time with tendonitis already this year, is penciled in alongside Jon Lester. Past that, options include Eddie Butler and Mike Montgomery. Not exactly an awe-inspiring group.

But if you factor in Archer and assume the Cubs add another arm via free agency, the staff looks much more potent. It all comes down to how much you believe in Jimenez and his abilities. Is he the next big thing in Major League Baseball or just a second coming of Jorge Soler?

Remember the Matt Garza days?

Inconsistent, with the ability to dominate. That’s a pretty common description used back in the day for Matt Garza. And, more than a handful of times, it’s been used with Archer, as well.

Both spent time with the Rays – to mixed results. But is a comparison truly warranted?

As you can see, Archer outperformed Garza in both earned run average, strikeout-to-walk ratio and fielding independent pitching. But the two are eerily similar in terms of long-balls allowed. I think one of the biggest issues that plagues Garza is his temperament. Archer, meanwhile, seems to be a much softer competitor. That’s not to say it’s a bad thing, but his emotions don’t rule him like they do the former.

Over their first five seasons, both Garza and Archer were largely league-average pitchers. So why do fans feel the need to unload a blue-chip prospect like Jimenez in a deal to add Archer? Because he comes with team control – something that doesn’t come cheap in today’s game. The price for young, controllable arms has only risen since 2006, when Garza broke onto the scene.

A team’s best prospect for a league-average arm? Thanks, but no thanks.

Slugger on a mission in the Cubs’ system

Still just in his age-20 season, the future of Eloy Jimenez remains unclear. On one hand, he may go on to be the latest position player fixture in the Cubs’ big-league lineup. On the other, he may fizzle out and wind up being a bust – even though those are rare under this front office regime.

There is no disputing his tools, though. During this week’s Home Run Derby, the outfielder blasted a ball off the light tower in left-center field, setting the Internet ablaze with wonder.

On the year, he owns a .278/.381/.546 slash-line with Myrtle Beach. His .927 OPS, spread over the course of an entire season, would represent a career-best for the youngster. Entering this year as baseball’s #14 prospect according to Baseball America, he remains one of the team’s last top-tier prospects.

There’s no telling what Jimenez will become. But it’s hard to rationalize dealing a prospect of his caliber for a guy who’s largely been a middle-of-the-road contributor on an up-and-down team in his career.

Cubs’ fans want to win worse than ever before. They’ve gotten a taste of winning and they aren’t satisfied – not even close. But now is not the time to pillage the system for an acceptable piece – it’s the time to win a deal and get the right one.