2 Cubs trade deadline fits Jed Hoyer should be begging for, 2 they should stay far away from

After some rough sailing, including two ten-game winning streaks, a ten-game losing streak, and a hurricane of pitching injuries, the Chicago Cubs are nearly there. The salvation of the trade deadline is just a few weeks away, and they're plenty good enough to justify some solid buying from Jed Hoyer and the front office. Just about every starting pitcher on the market is bound to be on their radar, save for maybe the ultra-expensive Tarik Skubal rental. That's reflected in Jeff Passan's recent pre-deadline write-up at ESPN, where he ranked the top trade candidates across baseball.

The Cubs show up as best fits from Joe Ryan at #4 down to Freddy Peralta at #25, and just about everywhere in between. To what extent they'll be aggressive, however, remains to be seen. Hoyer might be a bit more cautious about paying up for a rental when a first-round bye is currently far out of reach.

Yet, this isn't going to be a repeat of 2025. The Cubs' needs are so glaring and obvious, with Cade Horton done for the season, Justin Steele and Ben Brown questionable to return for the year, and plenty of others down until after the All-Star break, that they have to act. Moreover, their pitching situation for next year is so uncertain that it would behoove them to start acquiring controllable arms now. Let's look at two candidates from Passan's list that would be dream trades to make and two that they should avoid at all costs.

Joe Ryan is an ideal Cubs target with control

Going back to last year's trade deadline, Cubs fans have dreamt of adding the Twins' ace Ryan to the top of their rotation. There was a clear interest in him, but, as Hoyer and Carter Hawkins asserted, the price for pitching back then was painfully steep. Now, with one less year of control and a much greater need, particularly at the front of the rotation, he's the model of what the Cubs should be looking for in terms of impact now and next year. As we've discussed time and again, Ryan is remarkably consistent, once again becoming an All-Star this year with a 2.85 ERA and stellar 2.77 FIP in 110 1/3 innings and sporting a mostly clean injury history outside of a teres major strain that cut his 2024 season short.

There are two big complications with trading for him, one that is unique to his situation and one that will have to be addressed with any multi-year player acquired at the deadline. For one, the Twins aren't out of it yet. They may be a middling 48-49, but that's still only three games back of the division lead in the AL Central and, wildly enough, are tied with the Mariners for the third and final Wild Card spot after a rough start to the year. Unless they lose ground in the next few weeks, they may be inclined to hang on to Ryan given that he's controllable through 2027.

The other issue, meanwhile, is the possibility of a lockout. Ryan will cost more because of the extra year, but if talks between the MLBPA and the owners prove especially contentious, there's at least a slight possibility that a team could be paying a higher price tag for just half a year of service. That would sting, but I imagine cooler heads will prevail before that point is reached, and we will play baseball at some point in 2027, so the risk would be worth it. Since his first full season in 2022, his 3.72 ERA is just outside the top ten of all players in baseball with 700 or more innings pitched, making him a caliber of arm the Cubs simply haven't employed in years.

Freddy Peralta has way too many concerns for a rental

When the Mets collapsed early into the season while the Cubs were surging, the idea of trading for Freddy Peralta seemed like a no-brainer. The former Brewers ace has long tormented Chicago, and the chance to reunite him with Craig Counsell was enticing given his 3.69 career ERA and 3.72 FIP. Even as a rental, there was plenty of value given the impact and the potential that it could give them the inside track to sign him in free agency next year.

However, the current version of Peralta in Queens isn't the one fans will recognize. He has a 4.66 ERA and 4.38 FIP, both by far high watermarks since he became a full-time starter. The most notable differences are that his strikeout rate has cratered, falling to just 22.3% from a 28.2% mark last year, and his splits against lefties have completely flipped on their head, to the point where those batting from the left side are slashing .263/.327/.468 against him on the year. He's also sporting a career-high 39% hard hit rate, which suggests he isn't fooling batters to the same degree he was at his best.

There's definitely some bad luck baked in here, as his expected ERA is a more Peralta-like 3.79 and his most-used pitches are almost all giving up more batting average and slug than expected. Yet, those problems are enough that the Cubs should consider looking elsewhere if they go the rental route to get the most impact for this year. A controllable pitcher would be a preferable target anyway, even if they eventually circle back and sign Peralta in free agency.

Reid Detmers would be a gamble worth taking for the Cubs' future

The Los Angeles Angels are again going nowhere, and they have not one, but two controllable starters that should interest the Cubs. The first and highest-ranked of the two on Passan's list is former first-rounder Reid Detmers, who has had a bit of a roller coaster big-league career so far. After two seasons in a row making progress as a valuable rotation piece in 2022 and 2023, he took a big step back in 2024 with a 6.70 ERA and 4.72 FIP and earned a demotion to the minors. His 2025 was instead spent in the bullpen, where he performed well enough with a 3.96 ERA and 3.12 FIP.

Now, however, the lefty is back to starting and showing a lot of promise. A 4.39 ERA in 108 2/3 innings isn't too exciting, but underneath the hood are a lot of encouraging signs, like a 3.38 expected ERA and 3.35 FIP. Detmers also has the fourth-most strikeouts of any pitcher in the majors, which would be a boon for a Cubs team without swing-and-miss stuff. He's also kept one improved skill from his days in relief that Counsell's club desperately needs — a strong 0.99 home runs per nine innings.

Compared to Ryan, who's a finished product, Detmers is still a bit of a project with a lot of good tools, like his plus fastball and slider, that indicate he's capable of better. In that sense, he's comparable to Edward Cabrera, albeit without the injury concerns. Moreover, he's only 26 and comes with two more years of control, meaning the lockout is less of a concern. Cabrera's struggles have understandably shaken confidence in the Cubs to elevate pitchers with high potential, but Detmers seems like everything they could want in a young pitcher who would be part of their plans for a while. He'd be pricey, but if the Angels are willing to give him up, the Cubs should be all over him.

Jose Soriano isn't looking like the impact arm he was to start the season

On the flip side is the Angels' other intriguing pitcher, Jose Soriano, who comes in at #16 on Passan's ranking. Like Detmers, he's young at just 27 years old and has two years of control with a ton of upside. Unlike Detmers, however, the warning signs have shone bright beneath his sparkling 3.49 ERA. After giving up just one run in his first 37 2/3 innings, the wheels have come off the bus. To illustrate the drop-off, starting from his match-up against the White Sox at the end of April, his first start giving up more than one run, he's had the fifth-worst ERA among qualified pitchers at 5.15 with an also quite bad 4.89 FIP.

A constant problem in Soriano's career has been his walk rate and overall command, and that remains true in 2026, as he's issuing free passes to 11.4% of batters he's faced. Only 43.6% of his pitches are ending up in the strike zone, putting him comfortably below league average when it comes to getting the ball over the plate. Home runs have also increasingly plagued him, as he's coughed up 11 from that game with the White Sox on. As with the rest of his career, he still has the look of a pitcher in need of a tweak or two to become more than a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

That's not to say there isn't also a lot to love about Soriano. For the Cubs, his 97.5 mph fastball would offer velocity this rotation currently lacks with Brown and Cabrera injured. Moreover, if he could limit the home runs, his 53.1% groundball rate would play up within the Cubs' defense. There's just a lot of uncertainty about how much impact he could provide this year at what's bound to be an exorbitant price from the Angels.

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