Will Wrigley Field be more hitter-friendly for the Cubs in 2025?

When Jed Hoyer unsuccessfully employed the Jedi Mind Trick to convince Cody Bellinger to opt out of his contract, he used Bellinger's relatively poor performance at Wrigley Field to imply that better numbers awaited him SOMEPLACE ELSE. As detailed here, Wrigley Field played as an extreme pitcher's park last year. According to Baseball Reference, on average, Cubs hitters saw a 13% reduction in their production by virtue of playing half their games at Wrigley Field.

Of course, not everybody was affected equally. The following are the slash lines of Cub regulars.

• Bellinger .247/.301/.399 Home | .282/.347/.451 Road
• Busch .211/.299/.384 Home | .280/.366/.489 Away
• Happ .263/.349/.478 Home | .224/.333/.407 Away
• Hoerner .260/.311/.329 Home | .287/.359/.416 Away
• Suzuki .252/.363/.403 Home | .308/.368/.546 Away
• Swanson .257/.332/.428 Home | .227/.293/.354 Road

Honorable mention goes to trade deadline acquisition Isaac Paredes, who hit like Jon Lester at Wrigley (9-for-82, 1 HR). At least he made his throws from third on the fly.

One way to look at these figures is to view the road as production in a neutral environment. Ian Happ hit better at home, but he was still kind of Ian Happ on the road. Dansby Swanson was the only other player listed here who produced at a much higher level at home. But look at Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki slugged like Marcell Ozuna on the road. Busch's offensive production on the road mirrors Kyle Schwarber (and the actual Seiya Suzuki).

Of course there was a flipside to this. Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele both had very good ERAs at home and on the road. The same cannot be said of the rotation's right-handers. Jameson Taillon had a 2.18 ERA at home and 4.58 on the road. Javier Assad was 2.47 and 4.87, respectively. On the road they were basically Colin Rea. Hmmmmm.

One might surmise that the Chicago weather would explain the anomalous measurements. But according to this report, the temperature and rainfall during the summer was pretty typical. There does not appear to be a definitive answer. There are elements of randomness all around us and Wrigley Field's Park Factor is one of them. We can guess that Wrigley Field will be friendlier to hitters, less friendly to pitchers, in 2025 because of past history. But it is just a guess. Planning in an environment of uncertainty is a staple of any system.

So what is the front office to do? Is Busch a stud or a problem? Is Assad going to be pitching in Iowa by June? In the 1980s, Bill James posited his "Devil's Theory of Ballpark Effects." The theory stated that GMs of teams in extreme hitters or pitchers parks tended to overvalue statistics that were distorted by these extreme parks. This led to a misapprehension of actual team needs. Wrigley Field used to be one such park. It is heartening to see that Jed Hoyer appreciates these issues.