Isaac Paredes' Cubs struggles might be part of a larger Wrigley Field problem

The logic behind the Christopher Morel trade was straightforward. The Chicago Cubs needed to raise the offensive floor at third base, while improving defensively. Morel was capable of tremendous hot streaks, but his inconsistency and lengthy cold spells kept him from ever reaching his peak.

In that deal, the Cubs acquired who they believe can be a difference-maker at the hot corner in Isaac Paredes. Coming off a 31-homer, 98-RBI 2023 season in Tampa Bay, the 25-year-old appeared to be the power presence the lineup so desperately lacked. But it's safe to say he hasn't been a transformative cog for Chicago - but the reason why may offer some hope for 2025 and beyond.

Wrigley Field has been notoriously unkind to hitters all season long, ranking 22nd in the league in park factor, down from ninth a year ago. Paredes has definitely seen the impact of playing his home games at the (Not So) Friendly Confines, evidenced by some harrowing home-road splits since coming over from the Rays.

It's worth noting, too, that Paredes has an incredibly pull-heavy approach - and one that was talked about at length at the time of the trade. He benefitted a great deal from the dimensions at Tropicana Field. Looking at expected home runs, he's good for 23 in Tampa Bay, but just 14 in Wrigleyville.

Cubs hitters have had a big Wrigley Field problem all season long

Entering this week's series against Oakland at home, Paredes had an OPS north of .900 and was pushing 160 wRC+ away from Wrigley. At home? He was batting just .081 - hardly the middle-of-the-order hitter the Cubs hoped for when they swung the deal back in July. Hopefully, a three-hit effort on Monday against Oakland is a sign of him finally turning a corner at home. As a team, the Cubs are scoring more than one additional run per game on the road and this could impact how Jed Hoyer attacks the offseason.

“It’s probably an October conversation not now, but I think trying to figure out what that means for our offense going forward,” Hoyer told Marquee Sports Network. “And it’s a very complicated thing to try to figure out because I don’t think either way it’s that obvious because of the nature of how our offense has been this season.”

For those hoping the Cubs pivot off Paredes this winter, don't hold your breath. They're not about to cut bait on a guy with several years of team control and a track record of high-level offensive production on his resume. Top prospects Matt Shaw and Cam Sanders could force the issue next year, but the plan is for Paredes to be the Opening Day third baseman in 2025.