Wildly depressing statistic shows how far off the rails this Cubs season has gone

There's been no shortage of indignities for this Chicago Cubs team lately. However, getting blown out by a San Francisco Giants team that's 13 games underwater and competing with the Colorado Rockies for the NL West basement was among their lowest moments. Friday's game saw Edward Cabrera return from the IL, only to be greeted rudely with eight runs on eight hits, including three home runs in 3 2/3 innings. That was only part of the 18-run drubbing inflicted upon them, alongside another four dingers against just one from the home team.

After an inspiring win at Wrigley Field just one night prior, the laugher of a loss stung more than usual. More than anything, it was the perfect encapsulation of what's been their most glaring problem of late — the long ball. On both sides. Heading into play on Saturday, the Cubs had allowed a staggering 95 home runs on the year, easily the worst in baseball ahead of the 29th-ranked Nationals at 91. However, they've also only hit 72 long balls, not nearly as bad at 13th overall, but not exactly elite. That comes out to an unsightly -23 home run differential, tied for worst in baseball with the Rockies.

Pete Crow-Armstrong helped them correct that number a bit Saturday afternoon with two long balls of his own, but that's hardly much better. In the modern game, it's no secret that teams that out-homer their opponents are more likely to win. Case in point, some of the organizations with thee best records in baseball have positive home run differentials, like the Yankees (+36), Dodgers (+27), and Braves (+23).

While it would be nice for the Cubs to provide more slug, especially their new big-ticket addition Alex Bregman, who has only left the yard five times, the pitching has really let them down. Their 4.39 collective ERA isn't terrible, but 95 home runs is tied for the most long balls ever given up by a Cubs team through their first 64 games. The team they're tied with? The 65-97 basement-dwelling 2000 squad. In fact, of the Cubs teams that ranked in the top-ten most long balls given up in that span, only one went on to have a winning record — the 2017 NL Central champions. Only three squads in the top 30 went to the playoffs.

To a degree, this was an expected problem. Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon both had their fair share of home run struggles last year, leading the team in long balls allowed at 31 and 24 respectively. At 17 surrendered so far this year, Imanaga's on a similar pace, but his veteran rotation mate is in line to obliterate last year's mark with 20 homers in nearly half as many innings. However, injuries have put more pressure on them and thrust Colin Rea, who coughed up the third-most last year at 20, back into the rotation. It hasn't helped that Cabrera has disappointed and is on his way to setting a career high in homers allowed with 11 in 57 2/3 innings.

There's no easy fix to the Chicago Cubs' home run woes

At least the bullpen hasn't been as bad with just the eighth-most homers allowed in baseball, but that just further drives home how disastrous the rotation has been at limiting damage. The harsh reality is that nobody is coming to save them, either. Justin Steele's return isn't expected until near the end of the season, and the Cubs have sunk far enough to give Jed Hoyer some pause on how aggressively to buy this season. Even if their record was still great, it's still unlikely they'd be able to get a trade done until closer to the deadline.

Matthew Boyd is about to return, but his latest rehab outing didn't do much to calm fans' nerves. Although he felt better and accomplished what he hoped before his return to Chicago, it came at the cost of five runs off seven hits with three home runs. You never take too much stock in the results of a rehab stint, but the Cubs desperately need him to be better. Ben Brown has been a surprising stopper for this group, but everyone else has to look more like their best selves if this team wants to survive this season, let alone thrive in the postseason. Tommy Hottovy and the pitch lab will have their work cut out for them to help everyone make the right adjustments going forward.

The hitters, too, have to break out of this slump. Crow-Armstrong (128 wRC+), Michael Busch (141 wRC+), and Ian Happ (115 wRC+) have done their part, but since the end of their second 10-game winning streak on May 9, the group is second-to-last in slugging at .329 with just 21 home runs. Warts and all, this is the team the front office constructed, and it'll take a team effort to get things back on the rails.

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