Tigers' spiral creates Tarik Skubal trade speculation that's still too rich for the Cubs

The many pitching injuries of the Chicago Cubs have left fans dreaming of a potential blockbuster deal to capitalize on a competitive year. Joe Ryan, Freddy Peralta, and Logan Webb are some of the most ambitious pitchers speculated as potential targets at the trade deadline this year. However, an even bigger fish may find himself on the block as the obvious best rental option out there — Tarik Skubal. With the Detroit Tigers in free fall at 20-32 and 10 1/2 games out of first in the AL Central, speculation is officially ramping up.

Jon Heyman pointed out just how bad things have gone for the Tigers on X. Despite hoping to be playoff contenders once again, the wheels have come off as they've lost 15 of their last 17 heading into play Saturday, with five starters on the IL. More importantly for Skubal, specifically, the arthroscopic elbow surgery he underwent to remove a loose body back at the start of May has gone off without a hitch so far. The "NanoNeedle Scope 2.0" has helped him return to throwing much sooner than is typical for such a procedure, to the point that he's already nearing game velocity.

The injury and the Tigers' contention status were the two big obstacles to a trade. If Skubal comes back and shows he's at or near full capacity and Detroit remains outside the playoff hunt, there's no reason to hold onto a player they almost certainly can't extend. Before hitting the IL, he was shaping up for another remarkable season with a 2.70 ERA and 2.10 FIP in 43 1/3 innings, only increasing the chances he was about to get a record payday for a pitcher.

There's no reason to believe the Cubs under this ownership group and front office are going to even try to sign Skubal to the $400-500 million contract he's projected for in free agency, but is there a chance they'd consider trading for his services for 2026? The fit is beyond obvious, with Cade Horton out for the season, Justin Steele out until after the All-Star break, and both Matthew Boyd and Edward Cabrera also on the IL. In the playoffs, the reigning Cy Young winner would be a godsend in a five or seven-game series, where he has the chance to lock down two wins on his own.

Yet, the cost is where there could be a hang-up. FanSided's Robert Murray spoke to multiple executives around the league about what it would take to pry Skubal away from the Tigers, and the answers varied. Being a rental certainly limits his price tag, but the cost would still be steep for essentially two to three months of service. They agreed that one top-100 prospect is definitely not enough, but they varied in whether it would take another top-15 prospect or two from the organization, another top-100 overall guy, or even a top-10 prospect in baseball or more to get it done.

The Cubs could, in theory, put together a package that would work, but with no prospects ranking higher than 83rd (Jefferson Rojas), at least by MLB Pipeline, it's hard to see them outbidding other teams with higher-profile pieces. There's also the issue of money. Skubal made history this offseason when he won his arbitration case for an unprecedented $32 million. As one of the executives pointed out, any acquiring team would have to factor in the prorated $12-14 million that'd be added to their expenses. Jed Hoyer always factors in potential money added at the deadline, but it's hard to see Tom Ricketts greenlighting that expensive a move with the Cubs already over the luxury tax.

Cubs are better off seeking alternatives to Tarik Skubal this summer

As much as I'd love to see Skubal in a Cubs uniform in the playoffs, I'd make the argument that it's better if they don't go out and trade for him. Maybe if this team snaps its current funk and starts looking like a no-doubt World Series contender again, I'd reconsider, but as it stands, this is a move for teams like the Dodgers to make. Teams that are rich in prospects, have an ownership group willing to spare no expense, treat the regular season like a formality, and are going to be good for a while. That is not quite where the Northsiders are.

Rather, with so many other potential good options looking like they'll be available at the deadline, there will be ways to bolster the rotation significantly without having to land the biggest fish. Moreover, if they're going to expend serious prospect capital, I'd rather it be on an ace that helps them both now and next year, when Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon are all free agents, and Horton is still recovering from Tommy John. Ryan makes a ton of sense in that regard, as does Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara.

Skubal in Chicago would be a dream. In reality, it just doesn't seem that likely, even when money isn't the main factor.

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