Tarik Skubal’s arbitration win over Tigers hints exactly who Cubs must extend next

The Chicago Cubs were never thought to be a serious trade partner with the Detroit Tigers had they made Tarik Skubal available, but they likely were paying close attention to his arbitration process. Skubal, a homegrown ace for the Tigers fresh off winning back-to-back Cy Young awards, filed at $32 million, with the Tigers countering at $19 million. The Tigers' filing felt short, almost as if they were tempting fate, and their gamble backfired.

Skubal won his arbitration case against the Tigers and made history with the largest salary handed out through the arbitration system.

Skubal is a free agent after the season, and despite the ruling going against their favor, the Tigers aren't expected to trade their ace. Perhaps they were planning for a different outcome, considering they signed free-agent Framber Valdez to a three-year deal that carries an AAV of $38.3 million. It's a level of spending on two players the Tigers have never quite been comfortable with, and one they were looking to avoid, considering their proposed salary for Skubal.

Cubs can’t ignore Skubal’s arbitration win over Tigers when deciding who’s next for extension

Skubal's victory likely will reset the arbitration process for pitchers. Sure, Skubal's success can be an outlier, but the floor for ascending pitchers going through arbitration may have just been raised.

At this current juncture, Justin Steele is the most talented pitcher the Cubs have in the arbitration process. After Steele missed most of the 2025 season after undergoing elbow surgery, he and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6.775 million deal for the 2026 season.

Steele isn't expected back until the middle months of 2026, so there is virtually no chance that he reaches Skubal levels with his final time through arbitration next summer.

For the Cubs, the takeaway from Skubal's arbitration hearing is that they may want to work quickly on an extension for Cade Horton. Horton nearly won the National League Rookie of the Year award last season and is expected by many to emerge as the ace of the Cubs' rotation by the end of the season.

Between August and September, Horton was one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the National League. If that trajectory continues, the 24-year-old starting pitcher will be on the higher end of the arbitration scale. Horton's first year of arbitration is in 2028, so the Cubs have time to work out an extension. Though Skubal getting the last laugh on the Tigers should be a reminder for Jed Hoyer and Co. not to waste time.