The Cubs are about to enter a potentially division-altering month of the season

In their quest to finally take back the National League Central, the Chicago Cubs have mostly done their part of late. Their ten-game winning streak rocketed them back into second place and within striking distance of the crown, even if a recent three-game west coast skid slowed their ascent. Precisely none of their rivals are falling out of the race yet, though. Before playing on Tuesday, everyone still has a winning record, with the Reds being the surprise standout at 19-11. That unexpected level of competitiveness has all of a sudden made the month of May look that much more consequential.

Until now, Craig Counsell's club has only had to face the Pirates in a frustrating series that exemplified all of their early, pre-winning streak woes. That all changes starting on May 4. They'll finally get their shot against the red-hot Reds in a four-game set at Wrigley Field, kicking off a month in which they'll face all four of their Central rivals. Two weeks after Cincinnati, they'll welcome the currently 15-14 Brewers to town for a match-up that's bound to be as intense as always, followed by four games in Pittsburgh the following week and, to cap things off, three games in St. Louis against a Cardinals team that wasn't expected to be as good as they've been.

That is a grand total of 14 games against the Central in a single month, or just barely over a quarter of all divisional games the Cubs will play this year. It can't be undersold that this stretch has the potential to alter Chicago's season and shift the landscape of the division as a whole. In general, banking wins against their rivals in such a tight race is a good thing in the event of a tiebreaker, but the Reds, in particular, feel like the first truly massive series of the year. Playing well enough could put the Northsiders in the driver's seat of the Central for the first time in 2026.

The exact opposite is also true. A sluggish month could land the Cubs in a hole that won't be easy to climb out of, especially if most of the division remains competitive. Baseball seasons are marathons, not sprints, but such prime chances to directly control your fate are in limited supply. And unfortunately, it's not the best time for this team to take the reins of fate.

The Cubs will get their biggest test at the worst time

Most of the coming matchups will pit strength against strength. Though the Cubs currently have the third-best offense in all of baseball with a collective .261/.353/.424 slash line and 121 wRC+, they'll be taking on three of the top five pitching staffs in the NL by ERA, between the Pirates, Reds, and Brewers. All at a time when their own arms are injured to a beyond comical level.

Phil Maton has since returned, but all of Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel Palencia, and Ethan Roberts remain on the IL. After a strong start to his career, Riley Martin is now expected to be out around eight weeks thanks to a flexor tendon strain, too. The good news is that Palencia at least appears to be heading in the right direction after a successful bullpen on Tuesday, though Justin Steele's setback means high-quality reinforcements to the rotation and bullpen, by proxy, aren't coming until after the All-Star break.

Whatever the case, the Cubs will need more unexpected faces to step up big time throughout this coming month. The strain is certainly starting to show on the staff after giving up 27 runs in three games against the Dodgers and Padres. Counsell's options simply aren't great right now. Yet, April demonstrated that they could make it work, particularly if their offense is firing on all cylinders and they're getting some pleasant surprises, like Martin, Ryan Rolison, or Ben Brown.

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