Run differential tells Cubs fans a story they desperately need to pay attention to

Just two games separate the top and bottom teams in the National League Central entering play Thursday - a shockingly narrow gap for a division most viewed as a two-horse race between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers heading into 2026.

The Cincinnati Reds entered Thursday clinging to first place at 16-9, just a half-game up on the Cubs, who came in winners of eight straight and nine of their last 10. Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals checked in one game behind Chicago at 14-10 and the reigning division champion Brewers rounded out the pecking order, still three games above .500, at 13-10.

This very much seems like one of those cases where small sample size is at play. If you look at run differential (again, by no means is it an end-all, be-all measurement, but you can't ignore it either), here's how the NL Central stacks up.

Chicago Cubs (+42)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+25)
Milwaukee Brewers (+24)
Cincinnati Reds (-2)
St. Louis Cardinals (-11)

There's a sizable gap between the Cubs and the field if you look at things this way and being on a heater certainly doesn't hurt matters. But this looks closer, at least, to how the industry viewed the division as a whole and seems like a better representation of the long-term picture as the season moves forward.

Cubs aren't perfect - but they're showing they're built to win

Chicago isn't without its faults. Cade Horton is done for the year and injuries have decimated the pitching staff. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong both showed much-needed signs of life at the plate Wednesday, along with Seiya Suzuki, but the team has largely put up runs without their big bats delivering.

The Brewers have battled injuries as well, and are right in the thick of things along with the Pirates, a team that may be a surprise to some, but were a dark-horse playoff contender that's done nothing to hurt that view in the early-going. I don't have a lot of faith the Reds will score enough to get to where they need to go and the Cardinals, even if they're in the periphery come the trade deadline, are strongly incentivized to keep prioritizing the long-term over 2026.

It's been an inconsistent April for Craig Counsell and the Cubs. But they've battled through injuries and ineffectiveness to show they're built for the long haul - and run differential should give an anxious fanbase at least some hope that this season holds plenty of promise, despite a slow start to the campaign.

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Cubs aren't perfect - but they're showing they're built to win

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