Shota Imanaga's 2025 projections may not be what Chicago Cubs fans expect

Shota Imanaga will enter his sophomore season in Major League Baseball in 2025 after an impressive debut in 2024. The 31-year-old from Kitakyushu, Japan pitched to a 2.91 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, .225 average against, 9.03 K/9, and 1.45 BB/9 in 29 starts.

What can we expect in 2025?

It's worth looking into what Imanaga's strengths are and where the kinks are. Like his days in Japan, Imanaga pitched with spectacular command (was in the top five in BB/9 among pitchers in baseball) and was able to generate whiffs (72nd percentile in whiff rate per Statcast) with a mix of pitches using movement and location. When he does generate contact, much of it is in the air, and he is susceptible to home runs. Last year, 45.5% of batted balls against Imanaga were flyballs, and he surrendered 27 home runs in 173.1 innings.

All in all, his whiff and command abilities were in the higher percentile in baseball while his contact against and groundball rate were in the lower percentile. His command and ability to miss bats helped limit the damage on home runs, many of which were solo, and get out of jams with big strikeouts and good outfield defense with the likes of Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Pete Crow-Armstrong playing behind him.

Looking forward to 2025, there's no reason to think he won't still be a good pitcher but the ERA could regress a bit. Being a flyball pitcher and allowing some of the contact that he does, it seems realistic to think he could be around the mid-3s in ERA next year, assuming everything else goes well. Last season's 2.91 ERA was coupled with a 3.72 FIP, 3.62 xFIP (expected FIP) and 3.46 xERA (expected ERA). So there was some "room" between the ERA and FIP - NOT taking away from the fact that the FIP, xFIP, and xERA were all still overall good.

Steamer projections have Imanaga posting a 3.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .240 average against, 1.3 HR/9, 9.09 K/9 and 1.94 BB/9 in 2025. This would be a 0.75 ERA from 2024, but a 3.60-ish ERA, which is around where his FIP and xFIP were last year, is still a good season. Obviously, Steamer is not a crystal ball, but they are factoring in some of what we have discussed. Also, factoring in, there will be more of a book out on Imanaga, and sophomore adjustments are a big part of many ballplayers.

To put my guess projection: 3.59 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.77 FIP, 179 strikeouts, 29 home runs, and 30 walks in 179 innings feels realistic - That's around the same number of strikeouts, walks and home runs given up in a similar number of innings but having some of the contact against lead to more earned runs against. This is also factoring in the BABIP might not be as low as it was last year (.264), and possibly closer to .280- ish (based on Steamer's projections).

Could Imanaga surprise us again? Sure. Steamer and my guess could be totally wrong. He did better than many thought he would last year, after all, and people already knew flyballs were a bit part of his game. He is smart and was able to adjust throughout last season, he has a great pitching infrastructure to work with within the Cubs organization. There is also the weather question at Wrigley Field. Last season was more pitcher-friendly, which matters especially for a flyball pitcher.

One thing is for sure, he will still bring great vibes and value to the Cubs starting rotation in 2025. As mentioned before he should still be a very good pitcher.